NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 8TH AUGUST 2018

Morning!

As per my previous post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 25TH APRIL 2018 

Below are the excerpts from the post 

"The overall fall also has ended in the form of a diagonal (as shown in chart) and hence a breakout of the above after making low of 9951.90 and continuing the rally only confirmed the characteristics of an impulsive wave till the high made yesterday at 10636.8 just 1.55 points lesser than the high made at 10638.55 making the final internal fifth of fifth wave of this wave I as a truncated wave (where the fifth wave in the last leg does not breaches wave three end point)."

Actual high made of wave 5.1 at 10929.20 on 15/05/2018 against the anticipation of the top being at 10636 completing 977 points from 9951 made in March 2018. 

Post the actual top made of 10929.20 on 15th May 2018 I replied to one of the readers query on 20th May, below are the excerpts:

"Correction is going on right now, I sense, within this week this correction should finish, where for that you may use Fibonacci retracements of the wave from 99552 to 10928 which is 977 points.38.2% retracement stands at 10554,50% retracement stands at 10439 and 61.8% retracement stands at 10324. Anticipating the same zone of correction valid, which I mentioned earlier 10600-10400 and from wherever NIFTY reverses, I have already shared my futuristic view of 11171 + levels till 12025 already since October 2017.These intermediate corrections keep on happening some of larger degree like 11171 to 9952 and some of a smaller degree from 10928 to so on 10589 low made on Friday 18th May."

Nifty made a low of 10417 on 23rd May 2018 and reversed from there to make a longer corrective wave as Wave 5.2 and went up to 10893.25 and finally bottomed at 10557 on 28th June, taking a month's time to finish this corrective format as highlighted in the chart. This was near the 50% retracement of the wave 5.1 which was of 977 points from 9951 to 10929.

Currently the rise from 10557 has reached and touched a new high of 11428 making it a rise of 871 points. Assuming Wave 3 to be smaller than wave 1 and longer than the wave 5 as per the rules of Impulsive waves (Wave 3 cannot be the shortest amongst Wave 1,3 and 5). 

I Have updated the chart with the wave counts post the fall of Wave 4 and the ongoing rise of Wave 5 in the form of 5.1. 5.2 and the ongoing 5.3. Which I anticipate topping out in the zone of **11430-11530** or probably has already topped out. 

**Date 9th August (**Correction** previously i mentioned 10430-10530 as a typo)**

Below are the excerpts from my post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017

"This ongoing WAVE 5 is highly likely going for 11325 to 11825 zone to complete 2 degrees of trend one starting from 6825 and another starting from 2252. This uptrend would make traders feel a euphoria which has been experienced never before. By numbers this will be a 5000 points rally approximately within a span of 2 years from 6825 to 11825 (Started February 2016 ending approximately in First Quarter 2018)."

"The above views remain intact till the time we do not break 9685 on NIFTY and 23611 for BANKNIFTY. So, from here approx 1000-1500 points rally in NIFTY and approx 5000 - 6000 points rally in BANKNIFTY."

The actual time varied by additional 6 months as we can give ranges of time and not exact date and time in Elliott Wave Analysis. Since Elliott Wave works in tandem with Fibonacci numbers, hence along with time we can anticipate retracements in terms of correction on downside and extensions in terms of impulsive on upsides in case of an Uptrend and the vice-versa in case of downtrends.

Below are the excerpts from a reply I made to one of the readers on June 7 after his query on June 3rd : 

"Dear abhishek could u please update the counts of nifty"

My Reply: "I am not looking at intermediate counts. My counts for the near to mid-term remains for upside above 11171+ levels till 12000, also while the correction is going on, catching them in between is like guessing them, a correction can be in any of the existing corrective format, we need to wait till the time markets do not make any decisive moves, also I am not giving in intraday or weekly updates on Nifty, I update when I feel there is a need to do one."

The purpose of sharing the above Q&A is to re-iterate that I post my analysis either when the targets are met, or the SL given if any hits or if there is an interim urgent post I want to share as per my limited ability of analyzing the markets.

The intent of writing this post is that I sense that the top is very near as we have already risen to a point where correction is inevitable and can start any day.

The wave counts currently look like in between 5.3 and 5.4 as marked in the chart. Anticipating a fall from here till the zone of 11250 to 11050 and then a final reversal of 700 to 800 points on upside till 11825 to 12025 zone in coming weeks.

This uptrend as I shared earlier will complete two degrees of trend on upside. One from the recent low of 6825 in 2016 February and another from 2252 made in October 2008.

Whenever this correction starts from the zone of 11500-12000 zone. This time the fall anticipated will be bigger then what we witnessed in January 2018 till the zone of 10000-9500-9100.

Also, BANKNIFTY has reached a zone where it can start the correction from zone of 28000-29000 zone. Latest high was 27994 as previous targets mentioned in October post were 28000-29000-30000-31000.

I would advise booking profits in your portfolios and start sitting in cash for the upcoming fall, which should be the fall which is of greater magnitude when compared with the fall from 11171 and 8968 in January 2018 and September 2016 respectively.

Attached is the chart at the bottom for NIFTY Wave counts.

Happy Trading !