Morning!
As per the previous post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 26TH MARCH 2018
Below are the excerpts from it
"Adding
the updated wave counts below the previous chart and hence this should be
potentially the last fall in the zone of 10150-10000-9915 for the final upside
of WAVE 5 as mentioned in the update."
The first assumption was that
NIFTY will potentially reverse in the above-mentioned zone, but after the
overall wave structure completed at 9952 which started from 11171 has happened
in the form of a diagonal correction. I was anticipating one more fall slightly
lower than 9952 till the zone of 9800-9700-9600. While analyzing with Elliott
Waves it becomes slightly difficult to identify the wave structure when they
are in real time action, hence my posts are usually with a gap, this time
almost a month.
I have updated the wave count
structure this time on a daily chart with the internal markings of Wave 4 fall
from 11171 to 9952 as they are very near to the estimates as per the Elliott
waves guidelines.
a) Estimating the WAVE 3 from
7893.8 to 11171.55 equal to 3277.75 points. Wave 4 correction often is near the
38.1966% retracement of WAVE 3 which comes to be in this as 1252 points.
Subtracting 1252 points from top of 11171.55 comes 9919.55
b) Previous internal fourth
wave zone within WAVE 3 was 10413 to 10033. The correction ended near to the
low of this zone.
Above two points are complying
with guidelines of Elliott waves and ideal Fibonacci retracement percentage
relationship between WAVE 3 and WAVE 4.
The overall fall also has ended
in the form of a diagonal (as shown in chart) and hence a breakout of the above
after making low of 9951.90 and continuing the rally only confirmed the
characteristics of an impulsive wave till the high made yesterday at 10636.8
just 1.55 points lesser than the high made at 10638.55 making the final
internal fifth of fifth wave of this wave i as a truncated wave (where the
fifth wave in the last leg does not breaches wave three end point).
I am anticipating this fall to
be the Wave 5.2 as an intermediate correction in the rally started from 9952 in
the form of WAVE 5. Hence anticipating the top made yesterday in the form of
ending of WAVE 5.1.
Since this being a wave 2,
ideal characteristic of this, is a correction in the zone of 50% to 61.8034%
retracement of WAVE 1 which started from 9952 till 10636 equal to 684
points.
A 50 % retracement comes at 342
points which corresponds 10294 and a 61.8034% retracement comes at 422 points
which corresponds 10213.
However, other retracements may
also come into the picture of bear minimum 23.6067%, or 38.1966% or 78.6%,
which are pegged at 161 points (10474) or 261 points (10374) or 537 points
(10098) respectively.
And since this is a wave 2, it can
go almost at the beginning of wave 1 i.e., 9952.
So continuing to my previous
analysis as per NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017 ,
the bigger wave count on upside now in the form of WAVE 5 should continue
its upward journey for all-time highs above 11171 after this WAVE 5.2 corrects
in the zones as mentioned above.
NOTE: Taking a STOP LOSS is as
per the risk bearing capacity of the individual and since my post from October
is when NIFTY was at 10200, the STOP LOSS is as per the entry done on 10200 and
not on 10600, keeping this in mind for traders should prove to be beneficial.
And as always i am available to
respond to your queries.
Happy Trading!
Dear abhishek that means in all probability 9952 wont be broken, should i keep it as stopploss and start buying on falls to levels mentioned above?
ReplyDelete@Sandy: Probability of anything remains between 0 and 1 but yes looks like the probability now is very low for levels below 9952, the upside also right now is capped at 10658-10722 zone, either the mentioned fall in the blog happens first or this zone comes first and then the fall happens, but fall is there for sure,without a decent fall NIFTY is not going up for new all time highs above 11171. So the answer to your question on SL is kind of what i have answered that keeping the SL as the one which was given when the markets were 10200 and not 10600, so a SL could be 10100 and below zone.
DeleteBuddy 10760 gone r we into some sort of direct breakout without any correction?
ReplyDelete@Sandy: Yes 10759 was yesterday's high, i mentioned the capping to be in 10658-10722 zone.Markets do not keep on travelling in one direction in one go, there has to be a correction and since i mentioned this to be an impulsive wave from 9952,it is exactly travelling like an impulse only,correction is there for sure,now the the only difference is that instead of the estimated top made at 10636, the top has been made at 10759,making it a 807 point move from 9952 and 50% retracement comes approximately to 400 points which lies at 10459 and 61.8034% retracement lies at 500 points at 10259.The bigger wave counts are for upside only,but an intermediate correction in form of wave 2 should come soon as per the retracements mentioned.
DeleteDear abhishek though u hv refrained from helping me on hal and icci security as no records available can u do me afavor by giving fundamental takevon both i am in huge loss from ipo price 6048 hal and 17304icici sec, u can imagine my predicament 1.7cr in drain
ReplyDelete@Sandy: I only look at stocks which have charts and with EW, i do not track fundamentals.If i get it correctly then you have 6,048 shares of HAL and 17,304 shares in ICICI Securities which is totalling 1.7 Cr INR. ?
DeleteYes dear abhishek on ipo price 6048hal@1215rs and 17304icici src @520
ReplyDeleteBuddy Abhishek ,no site of any correction,r we directly going to 12066,my shares hal and ICICI securities not performing please help
ReplyDelete@Sandy: See,this is an impulsive wave from 9952,i too am waiting for correction since 2 and a half weeks when i posted on 25th April. Always remember whenever there is an extreme optimism or extreme pessimism in markets like what i can sense from your statement that, 'r we directly going to 12066',that is when the correction is very near.Markets are random,only identifying a wave pattern in the existing trend be it upside or downside one will be able to decipher the probable levels/zones/ranges.When i posted that now going below 9952 the probability is very less, it was only after understanding the existing pattern,any extensions in wave counts are also identified only when they are created, like in this cases and manier times it happens like this. Coming to your IPO shares,i categorically mentioned that i cannot be of any help for them. There are few things which i may want to share, if you ok sharing my thoughts on your trades in public then it is ok,otherwise you can send me an email to abhisheksaddi@gmail.com for further queries.
Deleteno issues dear abhishek u can discuss my shares of HAL and icici securities on this forum itself
ReplyDelete@Sandy: Ok as is shared with you that i do not or actually cannot analyze IPO shares,hence the discussion ends there.But, what made you buy these two shares in IPO worth 1.7 CR. If you are able to answer this question,i will proceed further.
Deletebad luk,i bid in ipos on the premise to bid heavily as most of ipos get oversubscibed and u get very less allottment ,i bid fr 50 lks in amber enterprises got allotment worth 11000 again in bandhan bank i bid one crore got allotment for 7 lks only,here i got trapped as both got undersubscribed and i got full allottment.greed for listing gains done me in ,i made good money in previous ipos on listings as my bids were huge i got proportionately good allotments but here no listing gains instead daily going down
Delete@Sandy: Then you have answered your question yourself, Bad luck. There is nothing more to it.I will tell you my version of this situation,it is betting for greed and leaving your fate towards an outcome of an occurrence,that might happen or not.This is very close to gamble.Usually in markets,one person keeps on gaining in small amounts when the stakes are very low in that trade,the moment the stakes are increased phenominaly that is when the maximum loss happens.This is a clear cut example of crowd movement,which actually follows the herd behaviour,one does it because everyone is doing it in order to gain something.This is where Elliott Wave Analysis keeps you out of the herd and stand out from the crowd,by this i do not mean that it makes one supreme,i mean that it first makes you understand that what is the difference of being in a crowd versus what is it when you are out of the crowds.Once someone practices EW in practical markets he/she understands the stark difference between betting/gambling/speculating etc.I can share my analysis and my trades with you but cannot suggest on your existing trades.These are your trades, decision remains solely on you,when it comes to waiting for break even,profit or booking loss.
DeleteDear Abhishek, whats your take now. Correction didn't happen. Shorters on the verge of getting out of the market. Any hope . What can be the extreme upside in Karnataka euphoria .
ReplyDeleteIt would be helpful if you can update before pre open 14/05/2018. Thanks in Advance.
DeleteAnd can you please whatsapp me on 9956511698.
DeleteHi Abhishek, hope you are doing well. It seems finally the top has been done in BN and Nifty today for the short term. Your updated view please?
ReplyDelete@Arun T V: Yes, it seems the top that i anticipated in my post is done, but obviously getting it perfect is not possible,we should get a follow through if the top has done and the correction should happen till the zone of 10600-10400 in coming 2 weeks.Will post accordingly.Otherwise, i am always available on my blog for any further query.
DeleteHi Abhishek, Finally indexes got corrected. Can you please update your analysis with current scenario?
DeleteThanks!
@ARUN T V: Correction is going on right now,i sense,within this week this correction should finish,where for that you may use fibonacci retracements of the wave from 99552 to 10928 which is 977 points.38.2% retracement stands at 10554,50% retracement stands at 10439 and 61.8% retracement stands at 10324. Anticipating the same zone of correction valid,which i mentioned earlier 10600-10400 and from wherever NIFTY reverses, i have already shared my futuristic view of 11171 + levels till 12025 already since October 2017.These intermediate corrections keep on happening some of larger degree like 11171 to 9952 and some of a smaller degree from 10928 to so on 10589 low made on Friday 18th May.
DeleteI hope this answers your query.
Thanks very much for the reply Abhishek..Its pretty clear now!
DeleteDear abhishek could u please update the counts of nifty
ReplyDelete@Sandy John: I am not looking at intermediate counts,check my reply to Arun T V just above your question,my counts for the near to mid term remains for upside above 11171+ levels till 12000,also while the correction is going on,catching tbem in between is like guessing thrm,a correction can be in any of the existing corrective format,we need to wait till the time markets do not make any decisive moves,also I am not giving in intraday or weekly updates on Nifty,I update when I feel there is a need to do one.
DeleteIf any more correction or new highs?
ReplyDeleteDear Abhishek almost two months no updates from Ur end,market has become painfully taxing in range of 300 odd nifty points,how and what to trade ? And my favourites HAL and ICICI securities any hope of bottom formation in charts I stuck in bad ipo greed investment can average but don't know where is bottom please help
ReplyDelete@Sandey Jhon: The range has been broken by NIFTY in last 1 week. Coming onto your stocks HAL and ICICISEC are you an institutional investor,because what i can recall that there is a capping of 1.5 Lakh rupees for a retail investor.But you have holding from IPO for 1.7 CR totalling both.Also the analysis part,my answer remains the same, they don't have enough chart data,that i can make sense of it.
DeleteDear abhishek i am retailer in hni category
ReplyDelete