UPDATE ON NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY'S TREND

Morning !

Referring to my previous post about the appropriate shorting zone for NIFTY being 7972-8025 zone. I would want to update that this still not the time to buy as the RSI for index is at 66.5 and 70 for NIFTY and BANKNIFTY respectively.

NIFTY may test zone of 8250-8336 on upside in the coming couple of weeks, so either enter shorts in this zone or average your shorts made in 7972-8025 zone for a deeper correction in coming months of May-June-July.

BANKNIFTY may test zone of 17500 in the coming couple of weeks, same logic applies to BANKNIFTY to, either wait to short or average your shorts.

But by no ways i am advising anyone to buy at these levels, either step aside and wait or enter and average above. SL would be for 200 to 300 points from here.

My current BANKNIFTY SELL CALL is ACTIVE in zone of 16680-16700 with SL of 16740 on closing basis is active and please adhere to the small stop loss of 40-60 points if this closes above the given SL.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY'S TREND SO FAR AND THE WAY FORWARD

Hello !

Referring to all my previous posts on NIFTY about a fall from 7730 zone for a new 52 week low and the resistance of the channel that i mentioned in one of my posts NIFTY DOWNTREND CHANNEL SINCE 9119 , On Wednesday NIFTY broke out of this channel which lied at 7780 for that day. It made a low of 7772.15 took support just at this level and advanced further for a close out of this channel at 7850.

This was the most important point to get confirmation that this move from 6825 till current 7850 is an impulsive wave and not a corrective one because only an Impulse Wave breaks out of a channel in which the correction takes place. What i was referring as per the wave counts, the overall correction from 9119 till 6825 as a Double zig zag i.e., ABC X(abc) ABC, so far,  now clearly looks like a triple zig zag i.e., ABC X(abc) ABC X(abc) ABC unfolded and ended at 6825 (Refer the chart attached for clarity).

Does this means the correction started from 9119 has ended ?

The answer is YES it has. The reversal has happened from 6825 and the current uptick is an Impulse Wave 1

Well, this does not completes the whole story, does it ??? No

The correction from 9119 to 6825 is of 2294 points. This down wave is the fourth wave of this cycle.

Started from

WAVE 1: 27th October 2008 at 2252 to 6338 on 14th October 2010   -   4085 Points in 492 trading days

WAVE 2: 14th October 2010 at 6338 to 4531 on 20th December 2011 - (-) 1807 points in 277 trading days
Wave 2 being retracement of Wave 1 so 1807/4085 = 44% retracement

WAVE 3: 20th December 2011 at 4531 to 9119 on 4th March 2015  -  4588 Points in 797 trading days

Wave 3 is usually the longest both in time and points wise in this case it is 500 points more than Wave 1

Since Wave 3 cannot be the shortest impulse wave amongst 1, 3 and 5 so as of now assuming it to be the longest one. To ascertain Wave 5 in terms of points and time, the thumb rule of EW is if Wave 3 is the biggest amongst1,3 and 5 then 1 and 3 would approximately be equal in terms of points and time covered.

WAVE 4: 4th March 2015 at 9119 to 6825 on 29th February 2016  -  2293 points in 246 trading days

Wave 4 being tracement of Wave 3 so 2293/4588 = 50% retracement (exact)

Wave 4 is also approximately proportional to Wave 2 in terms of time covered.

WAVE 5: 29th February 2016 at 6825 to Range of 10900-11500 in last quarter of 2017 or first quarter of 2018

This upmove from 6825 so far estimated 7972-8025 zone is the First Wave of Wave 5 and has so far completed 1000 points and is on the verge of completion around 1200 points.

A correction is due of this First Wave and could be a for 2 to 3 months sideways correction till 7250-7200 zone on downside.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 8TH APRIL 2016

Morning !

Posted on 6th April 2016 that NIFTY upper limit remains 7640-7670....it made 7638 on 6th Apriland 7360 on 7th April and reversed from there to take support at 7580....post breaking it that levels mentioned were 7530-7480......yesterday it took support at 7530...made a low of 7535 and closed at 7546.....expecting the momentum to continue on downside 7530-7480-7420-7380.

BANKNIFTY levels mentioned on 6th April on upside resistance were 15758-15829....it faced resistance at 15768 and 15726 on 6th and 7th April respectively......downside levels mentioned were 15530-15420-15320...yesterday made low at 15458 and closed on the spot at 15530......expecting downside momentum further......levels expected 15420-15320-15280-15170.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 6TH APRIL 2016

Morning !

As mentioned in my previous posts.....downside levels 7680-7625-7580.....NIFTY broke these first two levels yesterday and took final support at 7580 by making day low at 7588.65 and closed at 7603.20......upside from here can be till 7640-7670 zone and then further reversal for 7625-7580-7530-7480 levels...one by one.


BANKNIFTY on the other end was a delight to watch......scored a 500 in single day. Next levels on downside are same as mentioned in my previous posts...15530-15420-15320. On upside levels remain as 15758-15829.

Happy Trading !