NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 1ST APRIL 2016

Morning !

First Day of April Expiry, i wish everyone a profitable month.

As mentioned yesterday that as per the NIFTY CHANNEL in one of my post on 25th March, the last resort for NIFTY remains below 7830.

Looking at SGX we are getting queues that we may open gap down around 25-40 points. Critical level for downside is 7680....breaking it on 30 minute chart would create sudden panic towards 7625-7580 zone.

BANKNIFTY too looks to open a bit gap down in correspondence with NIFTY. Critical level for downside is 16050...breaking it on 30 minute chart would create sudden panic towards 15950 and 15800.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 31ST MARCH 2016

Morning !

Looking at what happened yesterday, yes it was disappointing and puzzled many traders including me, i don't hesitate in accepting that, but yes, adding on to it i would want to say that its time to take a pause as markets are at a very critical point. 

The NIFTY channel that i mentioned in my post http://abhisheksaddi.blogspot.in/2016/03/nifty-channel-in-current-downtrend-from.html . The upper end today is at 7829 which is the last hope for confirmation if any that the downtrend has ended and there would be no reversal for downside.Coming out above this channel which has been since the top made of 9119 in March 2015.

Today being expiry, we may witness some high action in market.

Don't go naked in market today, take a contra hedge in your existing positions if any.

The BANKNIFTY on the other end in this case the wave 4 has overlapped wave 1 which only happens as per the rule :

"This pattern is a terminating wave pattern.....it only occurs in specific instances....for example in the 5th wave position of an impulse wave or in the C wave of an ABC formation.Whenever this pattern terminates,it tends to resolve very sharply and swiftly back to below the origin of the pattern."

So the overlap may well reach till 16500 which obviously would not be in the capacity of every trader.

Again hedge your positions if anyone is willing to rollover to next expiry.

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 30TH MARCH 2016

Morning !

Yesterday mentioned that levels for NIFTY on downside are 7580-7530-7480. NIFTY did not breach 7580 on downside even in the last one hour sell off. Only and only if we breach 7580 the gates would open for next levels 7530 and 7480.

Today NIFTY has opened 54 points plus....on upside 7670 zone should act as resistance and post that all the levels mentioned yesterday should act as downside levels....7580-7530-7480. Only breaching them and closing below them on 30 minutes chart would get the next level one by one.

Yesterday mentioned levels for BANKNIFTY were 15530-15420-15320.....it did not break 15580 on downside....only breaching below these levels one by one. Same 30 minutes chart point applies to this as well.

Let us see how it pans out today.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 29th MARCH 2016

Morning !

As mentioned in yesterday's blog - "any break and trade below 7675 on 1 hour chart would create sudden panic on downside." 

It happened in the same manner from 12:25 PM to 1:25 PM....market broke and traded below 7675 on 1 hours chart....it created sudden panic and within 1 hour 30 minutes from 1:25 it made low of 7587.

Banknifty too behaved in the same manner as mentioned yesterday - "BANKNIFTY any breach below 15780 and 15700 zone and trade below this zone on 1 hour chart should result in sudden fall till 15450."

Banknifty did that in 30 minutes only...from 1:25 pm to 1:55 pm. it broke the zone of 15700 and reached to make low of 15522. a fall of sudden 200 points in next one hour.

Today NIFTY has opened at marginal gap down by 8 points .....levels for downside are as follows for today......7580-7530-7480.

BANKNIFTY has opened at marginal gap down by 21 points....levels for downside are as follows for today......15530-15420-15320.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 28th March 2016

NIFTY opened today....gap up by 25 points.....any break and trade below 7675 on 1 hour chart would create sudden panic on downside.

BANKNIFTY any breach below 15780 and 15700 zone and trade below this zone on 1 hour chart should result in sudden fall till 15450.

View stays intact for downside as per my previous posts.

HISTORICAL POST FOR MARUTI SELL RECOMMENDATION ON 19TH JAN AND ACTUAL TRADE DONE on 19th and 20th JAN

HISTORICAL POST FOR MARUTI SELL RECOMMENDATION ON 19TH JAN AND ACTUAL TRADE DONE on 19th and 20th JANUARY

NOTE: I entered in the trade at 10:38 AM on 19th JANUARY and then gave a SELL recommendation
on MMB MONEYCONTROL at 11:59 AM on 19th JANUARY.

Both targets were achieved of 4000 and 3900 on 21st January.

Attached screenshots are:

1. CONTRACT NOTE OF BUYING 750 QUANTITY MARUTI 4100 PE JANUARY AT 45

2. CONTRACT NOTE OF SELLING 750 QUANTITY MARUTI 4100 PE JANUARY AT 105

3. SELL RECOMMENDATION GIVEN ON MMB MONEYCONTROL BOARD on 19TH January on 11:59 AM

4. TRADEBOOK FOR MARUTI TRADES from Backoffice tool Q by ZERODHA

5. P&L statement FOR MARUTI TRADES from Backoffice tool Q by ZERODHA

6. CHART for MARUTI Highlighting date of trade.

HISTORICAL POSTS FOR RCOM AND JINDALSTEL on my MMB and TRADBOOK SHOWING MY POSITION IN JINDALSTEL

HISTORICAL POSTS FOR RCOM AND JINDALSTEL on my MMB and TRADBOOK SHOWING MY POSITION IN JINDALSTEL

RCOM position already shared in previous post.
Sharing JINDALSTEL POSITION ALSO in this post.

TRADEBOOK AND CONTRACT NOTES OF RCOM AND BHEL WHICH WERE RECOMMENDED AND ALSO TRADED BY ME

TRADEBOOK AND CONTRACT NOTES OF RCOM AND BHEL WHICH WERE RECOMMENDED AND ALSO TRADED BY ME

Since i recommend BUYS and SELLS both for stocks and indices...it is not necessary for me to trade in all of them. I trade in 1 lot and 1 or max 2 scrips at a time, that is one of my rules.

Contract notes for 4th January,7th January and 12th January, these 3 have the BUY/SELL orders for BHEL and RCOM.

Tradebook snapshots are from Q Back office by Zerodha

P&L snapshots are from Q Back office by Zerodha

NIFTY CHANNEL IN THE CURRENT DOWNTREND FROM 9119

I am posting a chart for nifty which has the channels in which NIFTY is travelling from 9119 since March 2015. Have also highlighted the key reversals from tops and bottoms for NIFTY within these channels, expecting the same to happen from 7730.

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 23rd March 2016

Posting 10 minute wave counts for both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY from 29th February 2016.

Covering A B C for both.

Below are the links for both charts

NIFTY 10 mins Chart

BANKNIFTY 10 mins Chart

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 22nd MARCH 2016

We all witnessed what happened yesterday on 21st March 2016. Both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY broke the upper levels mentioned in my previous blogs......7714 and 15790 NIFTY and BANKNIFTY respectively. Though NIFTY did not break it on closing basis but BANKNIFTY did by good 136 points at 15926.

Reversal for both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY on 29th February were identifed correctly on the Moneycontrol MMB and the potential upside of 7350 minimum and 14900 minimum which were 500 and 1500 points respectively. But this Wave being an Impulsive or corrective is in a limbo stage.

I had targets for short on both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY for 7200 and 14500 respectively from shorts given at 7450 and 15200 in March, but the triggering of deep stoplosses set on both 7714 and 15790 has as of now negated that view and i advice who have been following me since i started giving calls on both upside and downside targets from September 2015. EW gives you big targets but it also has big stop losses accompanied with them.

Historical tops and reversals identified

NIFTY
7510-8228 (700 points)
8228- new 52 week low 6869 (1350 points)
7250- again new 52 week low 6825 (400 points)
6825-7350 (500 points)

Total 2950 points target

SELL given at 7450 and SL 7714 (265 points)

BANKNIFTY
15600-13798 reversal (1900 points)
14468-13500 to 13300 reversal given (1000 points)
13407-14900 (1500 points)

Total 4400 points target

SELL given at 15200 and SL 15790 (590 points)

This time i had a strict SL to which one should adhere.

But as of now i would want to wait for couple of trading session to give any OUTLOOK on both indices.

I still feel that the market is pretty overbought and the collapse of the same is inevitable.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 21st MARCH 2016

NIFTY wave counts continued from last week..below are the updated counts

Total Wave C.3.4.A - 6825-7583 (758 points)

Wave C.3.4.B: 7583-7405 - 178 points  (23.6% retracement of WaveA) i.e., 758 x (23.6%) = 178

Wave C.3.4.C.1:  7405 - 7585  (180 Points)
Wave C.3.4.C.2:    7585-7479 (106 Points) 58% retracement of Wave 1 = 180 x 0.58 = 106 approx. the                                              usual/common correction of Wave 2 which is 61.8034% 
Wave C.3.4.C.3:   7479- 7613 (Till Now 134 points)

Wave 3 above as per elliott wave theory cannot be the shortest amongst 1,3 and 5. So by that rule it is either bigger than 1 which was 180 points i.e., another 46 points. so 7613 + 46 = 7659 or it could be shorter than Wave 1. 

If the latter happens where Wave 3 becomes shorter than wave 1 then wave 5 would be the shortest as per EW rules.

And Wave 4 would probably break the zone of Wave 1 which is 7583 zone and breach below that...making more perfect case for and Ending Diagnol and big reversal.

My analysis is the same...that upside is blocked 7695-7714-7730 zone...so Wave 5 would end up below this region.

BANKNIFTY wave counts i have updated on the chart

WAVE C.4.A - 13407-15451 (2044 Points)
WAVE C.4.B - 15451-14989 (462 Points) 22.6% retracement of Wave A approx. equal to 23.6% retraement
WaAVE C.4.C - 14989 - 15704 (till now 715 points) currently 34.9% retracment...38.2 would mean 780 points which is another 65 points from 15704 i.e., 15769.

Happy Trading !

BANKNIFTY WAVE COUNTS FOR WAVE C Started from 17th July 2015- SPOT PRICE 19229.05

Posting BANKNIFTY WAVE COUNTS FOR WAVE C Started from 17th July 2015

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 18th MARCH 2016

NIFTY on 16th March went up slightly above 7583 to make day's high at 7585 which i mentioned in my post on 16th morning.

The Wave coming from 6825 uptill now is WAVE C.3.4 which is explained well in my post 10th March: http://abhisheksaddi.blogspot.in/2016/03/nifty-wave-counts-for-wave-c-started.html

Now let us mark the wave counts in this wave C.3.4 coming from from 6825-7585 so far.

Wave C.3.4.A.1 / A.1: 6825-7094
Wave C.3.4.A.2 / A.2: 7094-6969
Wave C.3.4.A.3 / A.3: 6969-7527
Wave C.3.4.A.4 / A4: 7527-7424
Wave C.3.4.A.5 / A.5: 7424-7583 
Total Wave C.3.4.A - 6825-7583 (758 points)

Wave C.3.4.B: 7583-7405 - 178 points  (23.6% retracement of WaveA) i.e., 758 x (23.6%) = 178

Wave C.3.4.C - 7405 - either 7585 finished or in continuation which can max go to 7695 which is 38.2% retracement of WAVE A of 289 points so 7405+289 = 7694 or 7714-7730 zone (less chances)...and then final fall in form of WAVE C.3.5 for new 52 week low in early april

BANKNIFTY as mentioned yesterday in my post....this current uptick from 13407 would max out in 15750-15800 zone as this is WAVE C.4 for BANKNIFTY....it would bottom out before NIFTY as it started its downtrend 2 months before NIFTY in January 2015 as compared to NIFTY's downtrend started in March 2015 and hence being WAVE C.4 it should not overlap WAVE C.1 zone which is this said zone of 15750-15800.

Also the when i alarmed at about 2:33 PM on MMB board yesterday - "I think we are ready for a total collapse both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY........we have seen zero movement in both indice as compared to the activity being done in USDINR.....reversal level for USDINRFUT above 66.50...for NIFTY below 7625 and for BANKNIFTY below 15758....." by this i saw a total reversal in intraday...which happened rapidly in last 40 minutes of trading and this kind of reversal is a sign of big downtrend.

Let us wait today to get the final confirmation whether we make again a slight higher high than 7583 or continue our journey for the free fall in NIFTY.....BANKNIFTY looks like it has already reversed and should be under immense pressure from now.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 17th MARCH 2016

Referring to my post on 15th March, where i mentioned that we should go slightly above 7583 i.e., 7590 to 7615...today seems the day for making that......and the level which i mentioned on 16th March that we should break 7440-7420 zone on closing basis......it did not happen yesterday, though we made a low of 7405 but reversed immediately......and closed at 7498.75.

Now from 6825-7583 (Gain of 757.9) points.....If i consider this as WAVE A and take a minimum 23.6% retracement for calculation of WAVE B....then 0.236 x 757.9 = 178 points......from top of 7583 - 178 points gives us 7405....the low which we made yesterday was 7405.15.......assuming this WAVE B....we have already completed...then this WAVE C from 7405 to higher high above 7583...should complete WAVE C......WAVE A 6825 TO 7583......WAVE B 7583 TO 7405......WAVE C 7405 to New High if i take a 38% retracement of WAVE A which was 757.9 points then it comes to 290 points.....and 290 points from 7405 comes to 7695.....Also this A B C being the WAVE C.3.4 should not cross 7714-7731 zone....so the reversal for this WAVE should be anywhere from 7583-7695 zone....completing the WAVE C.3.4 and finally reversing for direct NEW 52 WEEK LOW........not just 7200-7090 zone but below 6825 in the coming days.....and it should be a fierce one.

For BANKNIFTY.......this rise is the last rise before it bottoms out........rise from 13407 uptill now would max out in the zone of  15750-15800 and then reverse for the last time to make new 52 week low and bottom out....by making slight low below 13407.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 16th MARCH 2016

NIFTY on 13th March opened and closed at 7484 and 7510 respectively.......on 14th March created a red candle doji....where it opened higher than 7510 at 7542 but closed 4 points lower than open at 7538...created a red candle doji and the body of 14th March candle did not touch the body of 13th March Candle....finally on 15th March it opened lower than close of 7538 i.e., at 7535 and closed at 7460...again 15th March candle's body did not touch that of 14th March candle....complying all three candles of an evening star reversal pattern.

Coming to Elliott Wave counts.....i mentioned yesterday that we should make a 20 to 30 points higher high than 7583 in zone of 7590-7615.....to complete A.5.5 and start the downtrend....but nifty did not make a higher high than 14th March of 7583......this is making a slight case of WAVE 5 failure in A.5.5 WAVE........the only confirmation we can get is if we successfully close below 7440-7420 zone......if that happens then next stop is at 7350 and 7240....but if it has to complete the A.5.5 wave successfully then a slightly higher high than 7583 and then reversal till minimum 7200.

Make or break for today is a closing below 7440-7420 zone.

For BANKNIFTY it has started to show sideways movement since last 2 days of 14th March to 15th March and also the range has started to decrease of high-low range.On 11th March the range was of 318 points.....on 14th March this range reduced to 196 points....on 15th March it further reduced to 118 points....showing contraction/squeezing of BANKNIFTY........which further is indicative of a decisive move.........a fall and close below 15000 would take it straight towards zone of 14800-14500-14400-14300 in this leg of downside.

For more clarity posting NIFTY and BANKNIFTY 10 minutes chart today.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 15th March 2016

Yesterday NIFTY opened in the range of 30 to 40 points plus....range....precisely 32.4 points plus as mentioned....also went to 7558 and breached that on intraday basis........and made a high 7583.......but closed at a lower at 7538 ....4 points down from where it open in morning at 7542....making a red candle for the day........

For 15th March.......expect a gain of another 20 30 odd points from yesterday's high of 7583 in zone of 7590 to 7615.....for making final Wave A.5.5 and start the downtrend........by 15th or 16th for minimum target of 7200 in form of wave B........of the A B C waves.

Stay put with your shorts and hold on for the said target......of 7200

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 14th MARCH 2016

Expecting NIFTY to open higher 30 to 40 points and reversal from 7447-7558 zone.....with a fast move in form of WAVE B till 7200-7090 zone....again WAVE B being corrective wave so A B C on downside to....A down...B up...but lower than top of A and C down....but lower than low of A.....hold on to your short sells....

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 11th MARCH 2016

I do have the same view that this is either second last or last upmove till 7558 and then reversal.......as mentioned yesterday....i did'nt find any convincing structure in C.3.4 of A B C .....which combined has the capacity to reach 7714 max.....we should see correction till 7230 to 7180 zone...max 7090 in this wave B......holding on to my analysis.

NIFTY WAVE COUNTS FOR WAVE C Started from 8654 on 23rd July 2015

Hello everyone,

As requested by few followers.....sharing the NIFTY WAVE COUNTS FOR WAVE C SO FAR.

Link to this image: http://postimg.org/image/3yu1fwyod/

NIFTY OUTLOOK for 10th March 2016

As mentioned yesterday that NIFTY should reach a level/zone of 7425-7370....it made a low of 7424.30 but bounced from there to create a Lower Low and a Higher High than 8th March candle.....creating a Perfect Bullish engulfing candlestick.

Coming to Elliott Wave Counts.....as i have been sharing this that the bigger degree A B C from 6825 to 7714 (max) should come.....it has happened,but not exactly the way i assumed......This uptick so far from 6825 to 7539 stilll looks like just the WAVE A from because there are not clear A B C waves from this whole upmove from 6825......since WAVE A would again sub divides into 5 waves....1 2 3 4 5......i am putting the wave counts from 6825 till 7539.....which explains these 5 waves.

From 29th February 2016 (budget day) we saw a lot of swing movement where i asked everyone to book their shorts in zone of 6869-6780....NIFTY made a low 6825 and reversed......this started WAVE A in the form of A.1

These are identified on 10 MINS NIFTY CHART

1. WAVE A.1 - 6825-7094 on 29th February
2. WAVE A.2 - 7094-6869 on 29th February
3. WAVE A.3 - (Further sub divided in-to further 5 waves-extended,the reason that usually wave 3s are the                            longest and the strongest) 6869-7527 - 29th Feb to 8th March
4. WAVE A.4 (Perfect a b c) - A.4.a - 7527-7442 - A.4.b - 7442-7494.50 - A.4.c - 7494.50-7424.30
5. WAVE A.5 - begun on 9th March - 7424.30 - current wave

Highly likely A.5 also has a smaller degree of further division into 1 2 3 4 5 ....showing up on 10 MINS chart.......this currently looks like A.5.3 or A.5.5.....which is either the second last leg of the last leg of this upmove......should make a slightly higher high than 7539 say 7558 and then reverse from that zone

So everyone hold onto your shorts.....for a minimum 300-350 points on downside from wherever this upmove finishes in zone of 7550-7570

Happy Trading.

NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 9th March 2016

Nifty started off the date flat at 7486.40 and closed at 7485.30...creating a DOJI candlestick showing indecisiveness.

Coming to the Elliott Wave Structure, the uptick seems to be the A B C structure of greater degree and current uptick from 6825 till 7427 looks like WAVE A of this structure. WAVE B should come down till minimum 7200 zone and max 7090 and continue its WAVE C on upside for 7550-7625 zone.

9th March should see the follow through of what happened intraday on 8th March.....correction. This should reach to a level of approx.7425-7370...to begin with in form of WAVE B.a (because WAVE B of the BIG A B C structure would also pan out in a b c structure on downside).