Morning !
I am always available to respond to queries.
As per my previous post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 9TH MARCH 2018, below is the excerpt for the update i did on 12th March.
"Adding the updated wave counts below the previous chart and hence this should be potentially the last fall in the zone of 10150-10000-9915 for the final upside of WAVE 5 as mentioned in the update."
I also updated wave counts of NIFTY for the ongoing downward movement in the chart in both posts 9th and 12th March,in an assumption that the upward movement from 10141 to be C.4, but after it touched 10478,the wave lengths of C.2 and C.4 seem to be strange to and hence i updated them after analyzing them in detail.
Though the fall anticipated in NIFTY has happened but the wave structure looks to be slightly different and extended as compared to the 7 day fall of Wave A from 11171 to 10276 hence making it a sharp fall versus the ongoing fall of Wave C from 10631 to ongoing 9952 so far, which has taken almost a month from 26th February 2018 till date.
Hence, i am again updating the wave counts of the fall from Wave C starting from 10631 till date.
Below are the detailed wave counts for WAVE C from 10631 till date 9952
Wave C
C.1 - 10631-10141 (Total 490 Points)
C.2- 10141-10478
C.3.1- 10478-10337
C.3.2- 10337-10419
C.3.3- 10419-10051
C.3.4- 10051-10026
C.3.5- 10026-9952 (or a new low on 26th March 2018) End of Wave C.3 (So far 526 Points)
C.4- 9952 or slight low below potentially 9900 to 10000-10100-10141 (since 10141 is end of wave C.1 hence non overlapping rule
C.5- Potential 10000-10100-10141 to 9800-9700-9600 zone (Assuming 400 points from 10100 or 400 points from 10000
End of wave 4 9800-9700 (9600 extreme case) this should happen within next two weeks range (an estimated time frame)
Below is the updated wave count chart for NIFTY as per what has been mentioned above
BANKNIFTY update:
The zone anticipated to be last was 23900-23600, which has been touched on Friday at 23605, so anticipating a reversal for the same in the coming week, before NIFTY for the same targets of 30000 + levels in the coming months, as mentioned in the 16th OCTOBER 2017 post.
I am always available to respond to queries.
Happy Trading !
Hi Abhishek. From the low of 9952 this is a upmove. Where do you see this ending. And if I want to short what should be the done I can start building shorts and what should be the SO?
ReplyDelete@Sidesh: The upmove as mentioned by me was till 10141...it went upto 10205,looks either as an ending diagnol for the next fall below 9952 or this ongoing correction could be a complex one,which is probably finished and now the impulsive wave could have started,looking at Friday's fall,i would not suggest a short over here.
DeleteNote:
ReplyDelete1. I have taken 250 or more points (high to low or low to high) weekly candle as reference candle.
2. Last Seven years data (2008 crash not covered for obvious reasons)
Findings:
1. from 08/11/2010 H:6335 to 19/12/2011 L:4531, after making low on 19/12/2011, weekly red candle completely covered by next weekly green candle and after that rallied up to 9130 on 02/03/2015, weekly candle.
2. from 02/03/2015 H:9130 to 08/02/2016 L:6144, after making low on 08/02/2016, weekly red candle completely covered by next weekly green candle and after that rallied upto 8968 on 06/09/2016, weekly candle.
3. from 06/09/2016 H:8968 to 19/12/2016 L:7942, after making low on 19/12/2016, weekly red candle completely covered by next weekly green candle and after that rallied upto 11171 on 29/01/2018, weekly candle.
4. from 29/01/2018 H:11171 to TILL DATE L: 9951, if on Monday 2nd April 2018 nifty succeeds to close above 10227 (plus minus 20-30 points, that also will be fine), then we may see big rally till 10631 in a least case.
why these weeks have been taken into consideration? because only on these weeks, in a downtrend, next following green candle covered the previous red candle completely and rallied.
*Stoploss is 9959 on closing weekly basis*
hi Abhishek sir... the above write up is my finding. Please comment. Happy to see you back.
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: It is always a delight to see someone else's observation on identifying specific/particular patterns/trend recognition.In your case it is on the weekly candles of the points you have mentioned.I understand that these Highs and Lows are actually travelling between a channel which gets created,if you join all the highs on the upper side with a trendline and all the lows on the lower side with a trendline,which actually makes a sense of the pattern you have identified,however keeping this as constant we see that trendline on the downside if stretched in future is coming into the zone of 8800-9200 in coming 2 to 3 months.
DeleteGiving due respect to your identification of trend/pattern.
I am just updating my blog regularly since last 3 to 4 weeks only because of the reason, because i feel that the reversal is very near,either already completed on 9952 or will just go slightly lower than that.
The basic fundamental in wave counting is that,one can only count and mark waves when they are created ,especially in identifying and marking corrective waves.Hence you would have noticed, that i have updated my wave counts twice after my initial post on 9th March and subsequently on 12th March and 26th March because i see the changes as per what i identify in a post facto process.That's the only way out when marking wave counts.Since these waves are natural, the shape and form cannot be fixed of a corrective wave counts, as to what kind of corrective wave will it pan out to be, threes,triangles,within them zig zag,flat or triangles and further within them single zig zag,double zig zag, triple zig zag,regular flat,expanded flat,running flat,contracting triangle,barrier triangle,expanding triangle,running triangle or further corrective wave counts of combined corrective.
Hence i wait for this to give concrete sign of a reversal, which banknifty has given by reversing from 23900-23600 zone by reversing from 23605 on 26th March 2018. Now just waiting for Nifty to do the same in coming days/weeks.
Dear abhishek i have been allotted 17304icici securities and 6048 hal in ipo, though as u said u dont rate ipos could u help me out as i made such huge investments for listing gain in hal i am trapped and in iccici securities already premium is at discount, should i hold on or book loos which can be very high
ReplyDelete@Sandy Jhon: My answers remains the same, which i told you in my previous reply to you about IPOs and you have already re-iterated the same.I am afraid, i may not be of any help,when it comes to taking decision on IPOs investment.
DeleteThank you so much Abhishek sir for your valuable response. It means a lot to me.
ReplyDeletedear abhiskek ,u were expecting two weejs from this post of urs dated 26.3.3018,for market to bottom out though it never returned to 9950 as u projected after 10141,can u update ur counts?any further major dips or u turn to 12000
ReplyDelete@Sandy Jhon: Yes Sandy,i was and i replied to someone Sidesh Pai on 30th March that "his ongoing correction could be a complex one,which is probably finished and now the impulsive wave could have started,looking at Friday's fall,i would not suggest a short over here". Though my view is of the big uprise as marked in wave counts, but what i mentioned to Sidesh looks more of a possibility.Tomorrow 9th April markets should again fall for 1 to 3 days and then reverse from zone of 10080 to 10150 zone for new impulsive wave on upside. I will update wave counts only after breaking 10380 to 10400 zone. Finding a perfect bottom is not impossible but pretty difficult so 9952 happens to be nearest to 38.2% retracement. A buying opportunity should be there in next 1 to 3 days in the zone of 10150 to 10080 with a strict SL of 9952 on closing basis.
ReplyDeleteAlso market does not moves as per anyone's expectation, my analysis is always based on what is my ability to identify the a potential bottom or a potential top not a perfect bottom or top. While working with Elliott Waves it is imperative to understand that especially while identifying corrective complex wave counts we have to take care of these things in mind. My bigger post on 16th October 2016 focuses on the impulsive on upside but only when the fall became steep i thought of identifying the internal wave counts in correction and post my markings.
Hope this gives you a clarity.
10380 broken dear abhisk
ReplyDelete@Sandy Jhon: Oh yes it is broken...want a closing above the same first.
Deleteit closed at 10379.35,tricky he he
ReplyDeletedear abhishek finally clised over 10400,is it possible to update wave counts?
ReplyDelete@Sandy: Will do it after the weekly closing on Friday,if it still remains above the same.
ReplyDeleteHello Abhishek
ReplyDeleteCrude oil above 70 dollar per barrel.
What's your view about crude oil in short term and long term
Do you still hold your view of crude going below 20 dollar in 2-3 years.
Regards
Basant Kejriwal
@Basant: Few things
ReplyDeleteFirst: Crudeoil and Brent Crude are two different commodities. I write only on Crudeoil which is still at $66 per barrle.
Second: Do you have an existing trade in the same, if no, then refer my previous blog on the same from January 2018, if yes then you need to share the details of the same with me, before i can advise.
Third: If i recall correctly, you had some query on Oil and Gas stocks exactly 1 month ago on 11th March 2018, for which i asked to share the details of the same,which you said you will but never did.
I am not sure whether you actually wanted a reply on them or not. Please be sure if ever and whenever you have a query then please share the details, without which i cannot proceed further and it all together defeats the purpose of you asking a query from me without doing what is necessary for me to proceed further.
Hope you understood what i explained above and come up with a genuine query.
Thanks Abhishek
DeleteSorry for not providing my full details of holding because I was out of station for last 20 days and was not getting proper time.
Here's my holdings
I STARTED PURCHASING HPCL FROM LAST TWO YEARS AND I ALSO PURCHASED TODAY.
I HOLD AROUND 9000 SHARES OF HPCL AND MY AVERAGE WILL BE AROUND 400.
I ALSO HOLD 10000 SHARES OF PETRONET AND MY AVERAGE COST IS 230.
I DO OWN ONLY THIS TWO STOCKS AND NOTHING ELSE.
THAT'S WHY I AM CONCERNED ABOUT OIL AND GAS SECTOR.
PLEASE GUIDE WHETHER I SHOULD HOLD THIS TWO STOCKS OR EXIT.
AND I REALLY CAN HOLD THIS STOCK FOR LONG TERM FOR SAY 10 YEARS.
PLEASE TELL WHETHER I CAN GET
4-5 TIMES RETURNS IN THIS TWO STOCKS AFTER 10 YEARS OR NOT.
Regards
Basant Kejriwal
@Basant: Just for clarity, when you say that the average of your 9000 shares of HPCL is 400 and you have been buying it for last 2 years.Looking at the chart in April 2016 this share was trading around 180-210 at time,which means your purchase of approximately 80-90% of your total quantity bought is above 400 then by this logic.
DeleteHolding for the time being is suggested,if you personally want to contact then my email is abhisheksaddi@gmail.com
Yes sir
DeleteAround 6000 shares I bought at 450 in August 2017.
But no regrets I can hold it for 5 years.
But my only problem is that I am fully invested and I don't have any extra cash to purchase more.
Please guide.
Regards
@Basant: You may call me Abhishek. One question, with 2 stocks your portfolio is approximately equal to 59 Lakhs, why have you not referred a professional portfolio manager or a financial advisor.I can tell you the wave structure and potential future targets but i cannot advise you to buy/sell/hold, that decision remains upto you or else if you have already decided to take advise from me,then it is totally a different thing.
DeleteThanks Abhishek
DeleteYes I have only this two stocks in my portfolio and I am 100% invested.
Actually I have done a little bit of fundamental research.
But please advise that do you think it's worth holding for long term for say 10 years .
And please tell your view on Crude oil also, do you think it can again go to the level of 120$ in coming days.
Regards
Basant
@Basant: Once i again i am asking your to connect with me on gmail,because if i reply to your query that will be a very blunt/crude one,if you are ok on getting that kind of response from me in this public domeain,then it is ok,otherwise i would prefer to give you my views on email.Let me know and drop a test email to abhisheksaddi@gmail.com
DeleteAbhishek can u update the waves, it has closed above 10480?
ReplyDelete@Sandy Jhon: I was anticipating your query for the update on wave count,it has closed at 10480.60.But i still sense some reversal.I do not want to rush into updating wave counts.Though i mentioned that i would not suggest shorting over here to Sidesh couple of weeks back because i would not be surprised if we have reversed for the final upside from 9952, but the fall that i have been anticipating is from last friday.Will wait this week for the fall to happen in zone of 10300-10150 and most probably would continue my view for the final upside above 11171.
DeleteDear Abhishek Sir, as per my chart reading capabilities, I found that on 13th April, weekly close came below 10550, that validated Head and Shoulder Pattern and I bought nifty 10300 and 10400 put options keeping in mind that nifty didn't close above 10535,today I booked profit at opening and bought again some big quantities in 10400 10300 put options.
ReplyDeleteWhat levels do you expect in this
week and where should be my spot sl?
@Neeraj: Abhishek is fine with me. Coming to NIFTY options, probably one more high looks to be in place around 10600-10625 zone and from there i am anticipating a high speed fall towards 10300-10200 zone within this week or before expiry, timing precision is not guaranteed.Your SL should be a close above 10650 closing on spot.Also one more thing, since its now just 8 odd days left in expiry,try to take near the money options when trading options be it in stocks or indices.10500 would have been better though 10400 is also ok but 10300 i would suggest to book out around or before your desired target,or when it falls below 10300,you might get a decent profit from them in this week.
Delete