*NOTE: UPDATE ON 12th MARCH 2018*
Today's uptrend looks to be a C.4 instead of C.3.4 as marked in the wave counts.
C.3.5 seems to be finished as a truncated wave at 10146.40 slightly above C.3.3 which made a low of 10141.55, hence completing the full WAVE C.3 at 10146.4 and reversing for upside.
Adding the updated wave counts below the previous chart and hence this should be potentially the last fall in thE zone of 10150-10000-9915 for the final upside of WAVE 5 as mentioned in the update.
Morning!
Today's uptrend looks to be a C.4 instead of C.3.4 as marked in the wave counts.
C.3.5 seems to be finished as a truncated wave at 10146.40 slightly above C.3.3 which made a low of 10141.55, hence completing the full WAVE C.3 at 10146.4 and reversing for upside.
Adding the updated wave counts below the previous chart and hence this should be potentially the last fall in thE zone of 10150-10000-9915 for the final upside of WAVE 5 as mentioned in the update.
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As per my previous post
on 16th October 2017 - NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017
Below are the excerpts
from previous post on Indices:
" I am updating my wave counts for NIFTY since 6825.
WAVE 1: 6825 - 8968
WAVE 2: 8968 - 7893 (Sharp Wave 2 from 7th September 2016 to
26th December 2016)
WAVE 3: 7893 - 10137
WAVE 4: 10137 - 9687 (Sideways Irregular Flat Wave 4 from 2nd
August 2017 to 28th September 2017)
WAVE 5: 9687 - Potential (10825 - 11325 - 11825) Time frame 3 to
4 months "
The fall triggered on 29th January 2018 from 11171 appears to be
the complete WAVE 3 of the above wave counts which started from 7893 and went
onto make 11171, hence making it a 3278 points wave.
I updated for intermediate buying to one of the followers on
10th December 2017 in my replies to his query on my blog from - "buy
in zone of 10050 to 9950 with a SL of 9900 and target of 11000 plus
levels.".
The above update was
aligned with the ongoing uptrend in Nifty.
I again updated
on 23rd January to the same person in my replies, which goes like
this:
"Yes you are pretty
much in sync with the current uptrend to take a break, the time is very near,
the only issues is that usually people are not well equipped to deal with the
volatility which is going on right now and will continue to increase in the
coming days, so I would advise to book profits in this zone of 11000 to
11100 and wait for a fall till 10700-10600 zone to reenter, with a SL
you can manage because there is a very high probability that the SL gets
triggered in this highly volatile environment. I anticipate both NIFTY
and BANKNIFTY to correct in coming couple of weeks and since BANKNIFTY is
bigger in terms of number than NIFTY hence I anticipate more fall in terms of
absolute numbers and not in percentage as compared to NIFTY. So, trade
accordingly."
Actual fall triggered
after the long weekend of 26th-27th-28th January, right from the very next day
i.e., 29th January 2018, after 3 trading days of my giving a caution advise to
exit longs.
As mentioned above
that the wave 3 looks to be longer- Actual 11171 vs Anticipated 10137. by
almost 1000 odd points. The last wave of within wave 3 i.e., 5th of this 3rd
wave started from 7893 went onto be an extended one and hence a sharp rise,
therefore covering 1100 odd points in just 36 trading days (from 10033 made on
6th December to 2017 to 11171 made on 29th January 2018.
Updating the wave counts
for the same target of 11525, 11825 and 12025 also
WAVE 1: 6825 - 8968
WAVE 2: 8968 - 7893
WAVE 3: 7893 - 11171
WAVE 4: 11137 - 10000-9900 zone or 9800-9700 zone (Potential
reversal zones for wave 4 to end)
WAVE 5: Potential (10000-9900 zone or 9800-9700) to Potential
(11525 - 11825-12025) Time frame 4 to 6 months
I am also updating the wave structure of this ongoing wave 4
from 11171 to so far 10141.55 in chart and in text below
WAVE A: 11171 to 10276
WAVE B: 10276 to 10641 WAVE B
WAVE C: 10641 to Potential 10000-9900 zone to 9800-9700 zone
For detailed wave counts/markings, please refer the chart.
I am active in replying to queries, whenever there is one from someone.
Happy Trading !
Hi Abhi bhai, if fresh longs created at 9800 zone, wat is my stop loss point? If i keep Top of w1 as SL at 8968 which is 832points, then risk reward is 1:2 only
ReplyDelete@Mani: Do you have a position ?? Is my first question. Second you also have the option to connect with me on WhatsApp, but thats ok anyways. When it comes to risk reward ratio, i am sure you are now experienced enough to know that a stop loss is decided by your own appetite.
DeleteThe logic you are giving in this question is not a question you are asking me, but highlighting the rules of wave 4 reaching the zone of wave 1.Hope you got your answer or atleast the direction in which you should think.
Hi Abhishek
ReplyDeleteLast week I bought shares for short term especially OIL AND GAS STOCKS.
PLEASE ADVISE IF I SHOULD HOLD OR EXIT IN RALLY OF NEXT WEEK.
AND IF YOU CAN ADVISE ON ESPECIALLY HPCL AND PETRONET LNG, ACTUALLY I WANT TO KEEP THIS TWO STOCKS FOR LONG TERM OF 5 YEARS AND MORE.
IT WILL BE VERY HELPFUL IF YOU GUIDE ME IN THIS TWO STOCKS.
And nice to see you back
Regards
Basant
Hi Puja/Basant,
DeleteMentioning Puja and Basant both, since i do not know who it is really,anyways.
We need to understand the basis first, that investment should not be done keeping in mind the return required to be earned and not the horizon of time, be it short/medium/long term.When you say Oil & Gas stocks, please try to be specific on the scrip,quantity,price,date of purchase.What percentage of the portfolio they are and what is the reason you want to buy them.
If you not comfortable not sharing the same, then please share the same on my email id. It is abhisheksaddi@gmail.com.When you have the answers of the questions i have asked,may be we can move to the next step.
Thanks a lot Sir
DeleteI will mail you today
Do u think befr march 31 due to ltcg market will break 9685,the previous hold
ReplyDeletePlease do reply,abhishek sir
@Sandy Jhon: We need to understand this one thing very clear that markets do not runs on news,so you may want to take this thought out of your mind,that it works on a cause and effect relationship.I updated the levels in my 13th March update. LTCG or NO LTCG.TDP moving out of NDA or staying in,Ruling party loosing in UP by polls or winning,they all do not matter at all. When you are above these questions in your mind and start analyzing markets without watching/reading any news or business news channels,it is only then you would get out of this trap of a retail investor that ultimately gets butchered in the markets every single time.Markets work follow a pattern and that patterns continues in a trend - UP or DOWN. Decoding these patterns and trends at different degrees of time intervals is what Elliott Wave Theory can be used to decode them.The more you learn and practice on charts, the more you understand the market better instead of getting into the Q&A of what if and what if not scenario. I hope i have answered your question.
DeleteOkay abhishek ,but again it is revisiting 10150 today as per ur revised chart it was off to 11200 from 10146..that is why worried..i have longs since 10300
ReplyDelete@Sandy Jhon: I will not have any information about your positions till the time you share them with me,if you are not comfortable to share in public blog then you have my email id.I Clearly mentioned in my 13th March update that what the wave counts look like.
DeleteDear Abhishek what should be stop-loss considering Ur upside targets of 11500-12000 once this correction gets over,the way we r falling I think 9700 cums on Monday itself already sgx -90
ReplyDeleteIf it doesn't reverse what should be stop-loss
Please do reply
@Sandy Jhon: I replied you the other day that i would not have any information on your trades,till the time you share them with me.Recalling what you mentioned was longs since 10300 (I have no clue on which day you made position in longs at 10300.I have also re-iterated this many times, that stop loss should be at your capacity to hold and not on the analysis i or anyone shared.Even i want to guess as to when did you really enter longs,my best guess would be 6th March to 15 March time frame,because NIFTY was above 10300 in this timeframe only.The thread in which you are asking questions to me is from the post that i made on 9th March,which just fits in the time frame i mentioned for your entry into the position.I categorically mentioned, that markets are set to go down again and the targets mentioned for 11200-11500-12000 are only after the downtrend ends in zone of 10050-9950 and extreme 9800-9700 zone.Making a position of buy in that time frame even after going through my post, and that too without having any stop loss of your own,then i dont know, my constant replies to your queries can help you or not,because you don't seem to follow what you read.
DeleteNo dear abhishek i am inro Staggered buying.. Not deployed all my cash.. Just twenty percent odd. My request is if 9700 cums tomorrow then what should be stoploss suppose that to fails to hold.. I am in profit in many trades of mine ex upl.. Just wanted a stoploss incase 9700 also goes.. Still i am on cash i sold around 9 lks worth stoks befr 31.1.2018 and redeployed around 2.5 lks till now.. So no holding period issue.. I welcum ur advise
ReplyDelete@Sandy John:That is a good strategy of not deploying all cash in once.The reason i come with counter questions,is that i expect my readers to be smart enough in terms of executing their trades and booking profit out of them.Even if it is a staggered buying still,you have been reading through my blog since long enough to make full use of my analysis.
DeleteNifty may come to 9700 but chances of coming in on 26th March 2018,Monday are not high enough.It will ideally make a lower low than 23rd March,Friday low of 9952,then reverse from that new low towards 10000-10100-10141 and again fall towards 9900-9800-9700 for the final low and then should reverse for the final rise towards New high.
I do track UPL also.
I will be updating my blog probably tonight with the updated wave counts.
Thanks abhishek i hv got allotments in hal and banshan bank.. What r u viws hold or exit on listing gains
ReplyDeleteViews valuable, i am already holding newgen ipo shares though in loss
@Sandy Jhon: I do not track IPOs only because of the reason,that they do not have a historical chart available to analyze anything,hence i am not the right person to answer that question.
ReplyDelete