NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY 31ST DECEMBER 2018

Morning !

As per my previous post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 8TH AUGUST 2018 .

I mentioned "I would advise booking profits in your portfolios and start sitting in cash for the upcoming fall, which should be the fall which is of greater magnitude when compared with the fall from 11171 and 8968 in January 2018 and September 2016 respectively"

As per anticipation this rise first looked like an impulsive rise in form of 5.1,5.2 and 5.3 and hence the anticipation was for 11825-12025.

I have been waiting long enough to post something, since i was not getting enough clarity. I was sure about the upcoming fall when i posted on 8th August that it is going to be of a bigger degree. It happened the way anticipated, but the wave structure turned out to be complex of further higher degree.

Posting the revised counts again:

BIGGER DEGREE WAVE COUNTS 

WAVE I: 849.95-6357

WAVE II: 6357-2252 (This is a sharp fall in wave 2) This took 10 months

WAVE III: 2252- 11171

NEXT DEGREE WAVE COUNTS WITHIN WAVE III:

WAVE 1: 2252-6338 (4085 Points) 

WAVE 2: 6338-4531 

WAVE 3: 4531-9119 (4588 Points) Wave 3 is usually the biggest amongst 1,3 and 5

WAVE 4: 9119-6825 

WAVE 5: 6825-11171 (4345 Points)

Further below are internal wave counts of the above WAVE 5 (6825-11171) in action.

WAVE i:  6825-8968 (2143 Points)

WAVE ii: 8968-7893 (50.16% retracement of Wave 1)

WAVE iii: 7893-10137  (2244 Points)

WAVE iv: 10137-9687 

WAVE v: 9687-11171  (1484 Points)

Now the fall from 11171 is of three degrees (WAVE III-5-v) hence the correction zone would be in the previous wave 4 i.e., 9119-6825. Also as highlighted above for WAVE II, which was a sharp fall, hence the current fall is WAVE IV which should be sideways and/or flat.

The WAVE IV is currently of a complex sideways corrective format, which is irregular in nature. Below is the bifurcation of this complex sideways correction: 

WAVE IV.A: 11711-9951 (From 29th January 2018)

WAVE IV.B: 9951-11760 (Irregular B corrective wave, went above start of Wave A) 

WAVE IV.C: 11760- Potential 9119 bear minimum in coming First quarter of 2019) 

Estimated WAVE IV time to complete is 10-13 months. Starting 29th January 2018 to March end 2019.

Below is the updated chart for NIFTY for reference of WAVE IV

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 8TH AUGUST 2018

Morning!

As per my previous post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 25TH APRIL 2018 

Below are the excerpts from the post 

"The overall fall also has ended in the form of a diagonal (as shown in chart) and hence a breakout of the above after making low of 9951.90 and continuing the rally only confirmed the characteristics of an impulsive wave till the high made yesterday at 10636.8 just 1.55 points lesser than the high made at 10638.55 making the final internal fifth of fifth wave of this wave I as a truncated wave (where the fifth wave in the last leg does not breaches wave three end point)."

Actual high made of wave 5.1 at 10929.20 on 15/05/2018 against the anticipation of the top being at 10636 completing 977 points from 9951 made in March 2018. 

Post the actual top made of 10929.20 on 15th May 2018 I replied to one of the readers query on 20th May, below are the excerpts:

"Correction is going on right now, I sense, within this week this correction should finish, where for that you may use Fibonacci retracements of the wave from 99552 to 10928 which is 977 points.38.2% retracement stands at 10554,50% retracement stands at 10439 and 61.8% retracement stands at 10324. Anticipating the same zone of correction valid, which I mentioned earlier 10600-10400 and from wherever NIFTY reverses, I have already shared my futuristic view of 11171 + levels till 12025 already since October 2017.These intermediate corrections keep on happening some of larger degree like 11171 to 9952 and some of a smaller degree from 10928 to so on 10589 low made on Friday 18th May."

Nifty made a low of 10417 on 23rd May 2018 and reversed from there to make a longer corrective wave as Wave 5.2 and went up to 10893.25 and finally bottomed at 10557 on 28th June, taking a month's time to finish this corrective format as highlighted in the chart. This was near the 50% retracement of the wave 5.1 which was of 977 points from 9951 to 10929.

Currently the rise from 10557 has reached and touched a new high of 11428 making it a rise of 871 points. Assuming Wave 3 to be smaller than wave 1 and longer than the wave 5 as per the rules of Impulsive waves (Wave 3 cannot be the shortest amongst Wave 1,3 and 5). 

I Have updated the chart with the wave counts post the fall of Wave 4 and the ongoing rise of Wave 5 in the form of 5.1. 5.2 and the ongoing 5.3. Which I anticipate topping out in the zone of **11430-11530** or probably has already topped out. 

**Date 9th August (**Correction** previously i mentioned 10430-10530 as a typo)**

Below are the excerpts from my post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017

"This ongoing WAVE 5 is highly likely going for 11325 to 11825 zone to complete 2 degrees of trend one starting from 6825 and another starting from 2252. This uptrend would make traders feel a euphoria which has been experienced never before. By numbers this will be a 5000 points rally approximately within a span of 2 years from 6825 to 11825 (Started February 2016 ending approximately in First Quarter 2018)."

"The above views remain intact till the time we do not break 9685 on NIFTY and 23611 for BANKNIFTY. So, from here approx 1000-1500 points rally in NIFTY and approx 5000 - 6000 points rally in BANKNIFTY."

The actual time varied by additional 6 months as we can give ranges of time and not exact date and time in Elliott Wave Analysis. Since Elliott Wave works in tandem with Fibonacci numbers, hence along with time we can anticipate retracements in terms of correction on downside and extensions in terms of impulsive on upsides in case of an Uptrend and the vice-versa in case of downtrends.

Below are the excerpts from a reply I made to one of the readers on June 7 after his query on June 3rd : 

"Dear abhishek could u please update the counts of nifty"

My Reply: "I am not looking at intermediate counts. My counts for the near to mid-term remains for upside above 11171+ levels till 12000, also while the correction is going on, catching them in between is like guessing them, a correction can be in any of the existing corrective format, we need to wait till the time markets do not make any decisive moves, also I am not giving in intraday or weekly updates on Nifty, I update when I feel there is a need to do one."

The purpose of sharing the above Q&A is to re-iterate that I post my analysis either when the targets are met, or the SL given if any hits or if there is an interim urgent post I want to share as per my limited ability of analyzing the markets.

The intent of writing this post is that I sense that the top is very near as we have already risen to a point where correction is inevitable and can start any day.

The wave counts currently look like in between 5.3 and 5.4 as marked in the chart. Anticipating a fall from here till the zone of 11250 to 11050 and then a final reversal of 700 to 800 points on upside till 11825 to 12025 zone in coming weeks.

This uptrend as I shared earlier will complete two degrees of trend on upside. One from the recent low of 6825 in 2016 February and another from 2252 made in October 2008.

Whenever this correction starts from the zone of 11500-12000 zone. This time the fall anticipated will be bigger then what we witnessed in January 2018 till the zone of 10000-9500-9100.

Also, BANKNIFTY has reached a zone where it can start the correction from zone of 28000-29000 zone. Latest high was 27994 as previous targets mentioned in October post were 28000-29000-30000-31000.

I would advise booking profits in your portfolios and start sitting in cash for the upcoming fall, which should be the fall which is of greater magnitude when compared with the fall from 11171 and 8968 in January 2018 and September 2016 respectively.

Attached is the chart at the bottom for NIFTY Wave counts.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 25TH APRIL 2018

Morning!

As per the previous post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 26TH MARCH 2018

Below are the excerpts from it "Adding the updated wave counts below the previous chart and hence this should be potentially the last fall in the zone of 10150-10000-9915 for the final upside of WAVE 5 as mentioned in the update."

The first assumption was that NIFTY will potentially reverse in the above-mentioned zone, but after the overall wave structure completed at 9952 which started from 11171 has happened in the form of a diagonal correction. I was anticipating one more fall slightly lower than 9952 till the zone of 9800-9700-9600. While analyzing with Elliott Waves it becomes slightly difficult to identify the wave structure when they are in real time action, hence my posts are usually with a gap, this time almost a month.

I have updated the wave count structure this time on a daily chart with the internal markings of Wave 4 fall from 11171 to 9952 as they are very near to the estimates as per the Elliott waves guidelines.

a) Estimating the WAVE 3 from 7893.8 to 11171.55 equal to 3277.75 points. Wave 4 correction often is near the 38.1966% retracement of WAVE 3 which comes to be in this as 1252 points. Subtracting 1252 points from top of 11171.55 comes 9919.55

b) Previous internal fourth wave zone within WAVE 3 was 10413 to 10033. The correction ended near to the low of this zone.

Above two points are complying with guidelines of Elliott waves and ideal Fibonacci retracement percentage relationship between WAVE 3 and WAVE 4.

The overall fall also has ended in the form of a diagonal (as shown in chart) and hence a breakout of the above after making low of 9951.90 and continuing the rally only confirmed the characteristics of an impulsive wave till the high made yesterday at 10636.8 just 1.55 points lesser than the high made at 10638.55 making the final internal fifth of fifth wave of this wave i as a truncated wave (where the fifth wave in the last leg does not breaches wave three end point).

I am anticipating this fall to be the Wave 5.2 as an intermediate correction in the rally started from 9952 in the form of WAVE 5. Hence anticipating the top made yesterday in the form of ending of WAVE 5.1.

Since this being a wave 2, ideal characteristic of this, is a correction in the zone of 50% to 61.8034% retracement of WAVE 1 which started from 9952 till 10636 equal to 684 points. 

A 50 % retracement comes at 342 points which corresponds 10294 and a 61.8034% retracement comes at 422 points which corresponds 10213.

However, other retracements may also come into the picture of bear minimum 23.6067%, or 38.1966% or 78.6%, which are pegged at 161 points (10474) or 261 points (10374) or 537 points (10098) respectively.

And since this is a wave 2, it can go almost at the beginning of wave 1 i.e., 9952.

So continuing to my previous analysis as per  NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017 , the bigger wave count on upside now in the form of WAVE 5 should continue its upward journey for all-time highs above 11171 after this WAVE 5.2 corrects in the zones as mentioned above. 

NOTE: Taking a STOP LOSS is as per the risk bearing capacity of the individual and since my post from October is when NIFTY was at 10200, the STOP LOSS is as per the entry done on 10200 and not on 10600, keeping this in mind for traders should prove to be beneficial.

And as always i am available to respond to your queries.

Happy Trading!

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 26TH MARCH 2018

Morning !

As per my previous post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 9TH MARCH 2018, below is the excerpt for the update i did on 12th March.

"Adding the updated wave counts below the previous chart and hence this should be potentially the last fall in the zone of 10150-10000-9915 for the final upside of WAVE 5 as mentioned in the update."

I also updated wave counts of NIFTY for the ongoing downward movement in the chart in both posts 9th and 12th March,in an assumption that the upward movement from 10141 to be C.4, but after it touched 10478,the wave lengths of C.2 and C.4 seem to be strange to and hence i updated them after analyzing them in detail. 

Though the fall anticipated in NIFTY has happened but the wave structure looks to be slightly different and extended as compared to the 7 day fall of Wave A from 11171 to 10276 hence making it a sharp fall versus the ongoing fall of Wave C from 10631 to ongoing 9952 so far, which has taken almost a month from 26th February 2018 till date.

Hence, i am again updating the wave counts of the fall from Wave C starting from 10631 till date.

Below are the detailed wave counts for WAVE C from 10631 till date 9952

Wave C

C.1 -    10631-10141 (Total 490 Points)

C.2-     10141-10478

C.3.1-  10478-10337

C.3.2-  10337-10419

C.3.3-  10419-10051

C.3.4-  10051-10026

C.3.5-  10026-9952 (or a new low on 26th March 2018) End of Wave C.3 (So far 526                    Points)

C.4-     9952 or slight low below potentially 9900 to 10000-10100-10141 (since 10141 is                end of wave C.1 hence non overlapping rule

C.5-     Potential 10000-10100-10141 to 9800-9700-9600 zone (Assuming 400 points                    from 10100 or 400 points from 10000

End of wave 4 9800-9700 (9600 extreme case) this should happen within next two weeks range (an estimated time frame)

Below is the updated wave count chart for NIFTY as per what has been mentioned above

BANKNIFTY update: 

The zone anticipated to be last was 23900-23600, which has been touched on Friday at 23605, so anticipating a reversal for the same in the coming week, before NIFTY for the same targets of 30000 + levels in the coming months, as mentioned in the 16th OCTOBER 2017 post. 

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017

I am always available to respond to queries.

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 9TH MARCH 2018

*NOTE: UPDATE ON 12th MARCH 2018*

Today's uptrend looks to be a C.4 instead of C.3.4 as marked in the wave counts.
C.3.5 seems to be finished as a truncated wave at 10146.40 slightly above C.3.3 which made a low of 10141.55, hence completing the full WAVE C.3 at 10146.4 and reversing for upside.
Adding the updated wave counts below the previous chart and hence this should be potentially the last fall in thE zone of 10150-10000-9915 for the final upside of WAVE 5 as mentioned in the update.

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Morning!

As per my previous post on 16th October 2017 - NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017

Below are the excerpts from previous post on Indices:

" I am updating my wave counts for NIFTY since 6825. 

WAVE 1: 6825 - 8968

WAVE 2: 8968 - 7893 (Sharp Wave 2 from 7th September 2016 to 26th December 2016)

WAVE 3: 7893 - 10137

WAVE 4: 10137 - 9687 (Sideways Irregular Flat Wave 4 from 2nd August 2017 to 28th September 2017)

WAVE 5: 9687 - Potential (10825 - 11325 - 11825) Time frame 3 to 4 months "

The fall triggered on 29th January 2018 from 11171 appears to be the complete WAVE 3 of the above wave counts which started from 7893 and went onto make 11171, hence making it a 3278 points wave.

I updated for intermediate buying to one of the followers on 10th December 2017 in my replies to his query on my blog from - "buy in zone of 10050 to 9950 with a SL of 9900 and target of 11000 plus levels.".

The above update was aligned with the ongoing uptrend in Nifty.

I again updated on 23rd January to the same person in my replies, which goes like this:

"Yes you are pretty much in sync with the current uptrend to take a break, the time is very near, the only issues is that usually people are not well equipped to deal with the volatility which is going on right now and will continue to increase in the coming days, so I would advise to book profits in this zone of 11000 to 11100 and wait for a fall till 10700-10600 zone to reenter, with a SL you can manage because there is a very high probability that the SL gets triggered in this highly volatile environment. I anticipate both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY to correct in coming couple of weeks and since BANKNIFTY is bigger in terms of number than NIFTY hence I anticipate more fall in terms of absolute numbers and not in percentage as compared to NIFTY. So, trade accordingly."

Actual fall triggered after the long weekend of 26th-27th-28th January, right from the very next day i.e., 29th January 2018, after 3 trading days of my giving a caution advise to exit longs.

As mentioned above that the wave 3 looks to be longer- Actual 11171 vs Anticipated 10137. by almost 1000 odd points. The last wave of within wave 3 i.e., 5th of this 3rd wave started from 7893 went onto be an extended one and hence a sharp rise, therefore covering 1100 odd points in just 36 trading days (from 10033 made on 6th December to 2017 to 11171 made on 29th January 2018.

Updating the wave counts for the same target of 11525, 11825 and 12025 also

WAVE 1: 6825 - 8968

WAVE 2: 8968 - 7893 

WAVE 3: 7893 - 11171

WAVE 4: 11137 - 10000-9900 zone or 9800-9700 zone (Potential reversal zones for wave 4 to end)

WAVE 5: Potential (10000-9900 zone or 9800-9700) to Potential (11525 - 11825-12025) Time frame 4 to 6 months

I am also updating the wave structure of this ongoing wave 4 from 11171 to so far 10141.55 in chart and in text below

WAVE A: 11171 to 10276 

WAVE B: 10276 to 10641 WAVE B

WAVE C: 10641 to Potential 10000-9900 zone to 9800-9700 zone

For detailed wave counts/markings, please refer the chart.

I am active in replying to queries, whenever there is one from someone.

Happy Trading !

NATURAL GAS MID TO LONG TERM OUTLOOK CONTINUED-12th February 2018

Good Morning !

This is yet again a continuation of the post written on 4th April 2017 - NATURAL GAS MID TO LONG TERM OUTLOOK CONTINUED-4th April 2017

Excerpt from the above mentioned post -

"The downtrend started from 3.994 is in the form of wave C and hence have updated the chart accordingly. This again has the same target of $1.3 - $1.0 in a time span of 3 to 6 months.

The top made today in form of wave C.3.4 of $3.278 though has passed the low made by C.3.1 at $3.145 marginaly but in futures this rule of non-overlapping is sometimes taken out. Expecting a reversal any day from here for lower levels again.

Hold on to this trade by revising the Stop loss of $3.513."

Natural Gas was range bound from January 2015 till January 2018 in the zone of  $3.8 to $1.6 zone. The downtrend mentioned in the previous post from $3.994 which as per assumption was C for a long downtrend towards targets of $1.6 to $1.0 zone turned out to be a complex sideways correction by oscillating between $3.9 to $2.5 and hence is now giving a clearer view to the current trend. The long term targets are there for NG in zone of $1.6 to $1.0, but adding on to that, NG should now test zone of $4.0-$4.5-$5.0 on upside and then fall from there  for the bigger dowside targets.

The SL was revised to $3.513 for the continued sell call in the previous post on 4th April which did not trigger so far and only got there for a tick trade on 29th January 2018 and from there within a span of two calendar weeks, NG is again dropped to the support zone of $2.5.

Attaching the chart with updated wave counts with the corrective waves highlighted in ellipse shape and from here first NG should touch the zone of $4.0-$4.5-$5.0 on upside and then fall from there  for the bigger dowside targets.

BUY NG at $2.2550 with a Mini SL of $2.50 with target zone of $4.0-$4.5-$5.0 on upside in a time frame of 6 to 9 months. 

Once this zone of $4 to $5 is achieved on upside, post that NG should continue its downtrend journey which the wave counts have been waving do in the form of next bigger leg fall.

Happy Trading !

CRUDEOIL SELL CALL CONTINUED

Morning !

CRUDEOIL today made a high of $61.60, last time when it was at this price was on 24th June 2015 with a high of $61.56.

Referring to my previous call given on 25th May 2017

"SELL CRUDEOIL  IN ZONE OF $50-$51, WITH POSITIONAL TARGETS OF  $45 - $40 - $35 - $30 - $25 AND FINALLY $10, THIS IS A POSITIONAL CALL WITH A TIME FRAME OF 12-18 MONTHS (Giving a Range) AND A STRICT STOP LOSS OF $53.75 ON CLOSING BASIS.

GIVING STRICT SL because if gets hit, then it has the capacity to go upto $59-$61 on upside."

The lowest it went was till $42.05 on 21st June 2017 only hitting the initial range of the targets given.

It then reversed and has been on an uptrend since that day.

I also mentioned that i am giving a strict STOP LOSS of $53.75 on closing basis, because if it gets hit then it has the capacity to go upto $59-$61.

Today's high so far is $61.60.

The reason of the stop loss given at $53.75 was basis on the assumption that the current uptrend since $26.04 made on 11th February 2016  till $55.23 made on 3rd January 2017 was a simple ABC correction. But post the fall till $42.07 made on 21st June 2017 and the reversal from there showed it to be a complex correction of a double zig zag i.e., ABC Xabc ABC also know as W X Y correction.

Of this complex correction the second ABC seems to finish on the upside in the zone of $61.60 to $62.57.

Again an opportunity is approaching to sell CRUDEOIL in the range of $61.6 to $62.57 with a STRICT STOP LOSS of $65. 

NOTE: There is a rare possibility of the price to go upto $74.95 hence again the STOP loss of $2.5 on upside of $65.

THE POSITIONAL TARGETS REMAIN SAME FROM LAST CALL OF  $45 - $40 - $35 - $30 - $25 AND FINALLY $10, THIS IS A POSITIONAL CALL WITH A TIME FRAME OF 18-24 MONTHS (Giving a Range)

Happy Trading !