Morning!
As per the previous post NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE 26TH MARCH 2018
Below are the excerpts from it
"Adding
the updated wave counts below the previous chart and hence this should be
potentially the last fall in the zone of 10150-10000-9915 for the final upside
of WAVE 5 as mentioned in the update."
The first assumption was that
NIFTY will potentially reverse in the above-mentioned zone, but after the
overall wave structure completed at 9952 which started from 11171 has happened
in the form of a diagonal correction. I was anticipating one more fall slightly
lower than 9952 till the zone of 9800-9700-9600. While analyzing with Elliott
Waves it becomes slightly difficult to identify the wave structure when they
are in real time action, hence my posts are usually with a gap, this time
almost a month.
I have updated the wave count
structure this time on a daily chart with the internal markings of Wave 4 fall
from 11171 to 9952 as they are very near to the estimates as per the Elliott
waves guidelines.
a) Estimating the WAVE 3 from
7893.8 to 11171.55 equal to 3277.75 points. Wave 4 correction often is near the
38.1966% retracement of WAVE 3 which comes to be in this as 1252 points.
Subtracting 1252 points from top of 11171.55 comes 9919.55
b) Previous internal fourth
wave zone within WAVE 3 was 10413 to 10033. The correction ended near to the
low of this zone.
Above two points are complying
with guidelines of Elliott waves and ideal Fibonacci retracement percentage
relationship between WAVE 3 and WAVE 4.
The overall fall also has ended
in the form of a diagonal (as shown in chart) and hence a breakout of the above
after making low of 9951.90 and continuing the rally only confirmed the
characteristics of an impulsive wave till the high made yesterday at 10636.8
just 1.55 points lesser than the high made at 10638.55 making the final
internal fifth of fifth wave of this wave i as a truncated wave (where the
fifth wave in the last leg does not breaches wave three end point).
I am anticipating this fall to
be the Wave 5.2 as an intermediate correction in the rally started from 9952 in
the form of WAVE 5. Hence anticipating the top made yesterday in the form of
ending of WAVE 5.1.
Since this being a wave 2,
ideal characteristic of this, is a correction in the zone of 50% to 61.8034%
retracement of WAVE 1 which started from 9952 till 10636 equal to 684
points.
A 50 % retracement comes at 342
points which corresponds 10294 and a 61.8034% retracement comes at 422 points
which corresponds 10213.
However, other retracements may
also come into the picture of bear minimum 23.6067%, or 38.1966% or 78.6%,
which are pegged at 161 points (10474) or 261 points (10374) or 537 points
(10098) respectively.
And since this is a wave 2, it can
go almost at the beginning of wave 1 i.e., 9952.
So continuing to my previous
analysis as per NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017 ,
the bigger wave count on upside now in the form of WAVE 5 should continue
its upward journey for all-time highs above 11171 after this WAVE 5.2 corrects
in the zones as mentioned above.
NOTE: Taking a STOP LOSS is as
per the risk bearing capacity of the individual and since my post from October
is when NIFTY was at 10200, the STOP LOSS is as per the entry done on 10200 and
not on 10600, keeping this in mind for traders should prove to be beneficial.
And as always i am available to
respond to your queries.
Happy Trading!
