Morning !
It has been long i wrote something. This upward movement on both major indices has been constantly going on.
Referring to my last post on 3rd May 2017, i mentioned and gave couple of sell calls with manageable SL for both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY.
The fall witnessed in NIFTY in a fashion of 10137 - 9685 -10178 - 9687 has been a sideways wave 4 movement and since 9687 it has again shifted gears for moving in upwards direction and creating all time highs.
I am updating my wave counts for NIFTY since 6825.
WAVE 1: 6825 - 8968
WAVE 2: 8968 - 7893 (Sharp Wave 2 from 7th September 2016 to 26th December 2016)
WAVE 3: 7893 - 10137
WAVE 4: 10137 - 9687 (Sideways Irregular Flat Wave 4 from 2nd August 2017 to 28th September 2017)
WAVE 5: 9687 - Potential (10825 - 11325 - 11825) Time frame 3 to 4 months
The above wave counts 1 to 5 are of the Fifth Wave, of which Wave 1 started from 2252 on 27th October 2008
The bigger wave counts goes like this:
WAVE I: 2252 - 6338
WAVE II: 6338 - 4531
WAVE III: 4531 - 9119
WAVE IV: 9119 - 6825
WAVE V: 6825 - Ongoing (expected to be completed in range of 10825 to 11825)
This ongoing WAVE 5 is highly likely going for 11325 to 11825 zone to complete 2 degrees of trend one starting from 6825 and another starting from 2252. This uptrend would make traders feel a euphoria which has been experienced never before. By numbers this will be a 5000 points rally approximately within a span of 2 years from 6825 to 11825 (Started February 2016 ending approximately in First Quarter 2018).
The wave counts for BANKNIFTY since are as follows: (In sync with NIFTY)
WAVE 1: 13407 - 20575
WAVE 2: 20575 - 17606 (Sharp Wave 2 from 7th September 2016 to 26th December 2016)
WAVE 3: 17606 - 25198
WAVE 3: 17606 - 25198
WAVE 4: 25198 - 23611 (Sideways Flat Wave 4 from 2nd August 2017 to 28th September 2017)
WAVE 5: 23611 - 30500 to 31000 (Approximately again in the same time frame of Quarter 1 of 2018)
So from here there is a decent enough buying opportunity both in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY. For NIFTY in form of NIFTYBEES if someone wants to buy delivery of this ETF and in case of BANKNIFTY futures with the stop loss that one can bear.
The above views remain intact till the time we do not break 9685 on NIFTY and 23611 for BANKNIFTY. So, from here approx 1000-1500 points rally in NIFTY and approx 5000 - 6000 points rally in BANKNIFTY.
Happy Trading !
Bro wave 3 in nifty and Banknifty is very small in this case
ReplyDelete@Mani: Wave three cannot be the smallest amongst wave 1,3 and 5.....also which wave 3 you are mentioning....? of 6825 or of 2252....because of 6825...wave 3 is from 7893 to 10137 which equals to 2244 points and wave 1 is 6825 to 8968 is 2143 points.....wave 3 is bigger than wave 1 by 101 points also estimating wave 5 to be from 9687 to 2000 to 2200 points making it max 11887....hope you have clarity on the rule i mentioned above of wave 3 cannot be the smallest.
DeleteHi Abhishek.
ReplyDeleteGreat to see your update after long. I have one differing view. We completed wave a of IV at 9685. Wave b is still continuing as expanding triangle and will end around 10300 plus post which wave c of iv will end at around 9300. Which will lead us to wave 5. Is this a possibility.
@Saharsh: Yes Saharsh the possibility of that is also there, the only reason and that is why i have mentioned that the view stays intact if we maintain 9687. The only reason i think that WAVE 4 has finished in irregular flat sideways manner is because WAVE 2 was Sharp and as per the rule of alteration between wave 2 and wave 4 it satisfies the rule of alteration also, WAVE 3 being 7983 to 10137 comes to be 2154 and 23.6% of this comes to be 508 points, subtracting that from Wave 3 top of 10137 leads to 9628. My corrective view holds good till 9628 is maintained and even if goes below 9687 it can might end up end up near 9550 and ultimately reverse upto 11800 targets as mentioned. Time is the ultimate factor again as always. Let us see how this wave structure unfolds on either up or downside in coming days.
DeleteGreat knowledge.
DeleteMy reasoning for above is because the current waves look like forming a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern and therefore look like expanding triangle. Please do share your views on this.
ReplyDeleteAnd therefore what should be the ideal trading strategy. I am not finding it prudent to go long at these levels and not comfortable shorting as well. Can you suggest a safe strategy which can be traded.
ReplyDeleteIf we can verify that the down move from 10178 to 9687 is only a 3 wave down structure, then this up move cannot be an impulse in which case we will know with certainty that this will go down and can actually go short and trade this quick downmove. Unfortunately I am not an expert in reading internal waves nicely and therefore if you can help me better. Thanks.
ReplyDeletePlease review the internal counts from 9685 to 10178 to 9687 to the current move and share your insights. I feel this is a right time to go short for 800 points downmove with only 100 points sl. In fact I was expecting your short call this weekend and was surprised to see your long call post. But I trust your analysis and if you can please review it once again. Thanks.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh: Internal wave counts from 9685 to 10178 looks a complex X wave structure (well atleast i am assuming it to be). Regarding a trade call, i am not giving any view to trade instead have given the wave counts....we will have to wait to get a concrete structure.Also, i think if i were you, i would go for a buy in zone of 10050 to 9950 with a SL of 9900 and target of 11000 plus levels.
DeleteAnother reason why I feel we will see a down move is running flat corrections are extremely rare and 9 out of 10 times they fail and therefore not convinced that wave IV has ended. Please do reply. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHi Abhishek. Looks like we are already in wave iv of v and basis this the targets for wave v come to around 10590 range. You had mentioned the time frame as March 2018. Is this only wave iv of 1 of v or of bigger v. If indeed this is only wave 1 of 5, then we have longer targets as mentioned by you to 11800. Can you please share your views on this count.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh Daga: Here are the further internal counts:
DeleteWAVE V: 6825 to ongoing, of which
WAVE 5: 9687 to ongoing, of which
WAVE i: 9687 to 10490
WAVE ii: (A) 10490 to 10094 DOWN
(B) 10094 to 10409 UP
(C) 10409 to ongoing DOWN
The above wave ii seems to be a sideways flat, so i am estimating (C) till 10050 to 9995 zone.
From there rough potential estimates of Wave iii, Wave iv and Wave v goes like these:
Wave iii: (9995-1005) to (11200-11350)
Wave iv: (11200-11300) to (10900-10800)
Wave v: (10800-10900) to (11600-11800) which should complete 3 degrees of trend, latest degree from 9685, second degree of
trend from 6825 and third degree of trend from 2252.
I hope you have clarity on this now, otherwise i am just a ping away.
CORRECTION
DeleteWave iii: (9995-10050)** to (11200-11350)
Have we started wave iii. Have we got a confirmation or this can be a corrective retracement.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh Daga: From my previous reply to you "The above wave ii seems to be a sideways flat, so i am estimating (C) till 10050 to 9995 zone". Day before yesterday's low made was 10333 which falls in the zone of 10050 to 9995, i am expecting this to be Wave iii.
DeleteHi Abhi. Thanks for your quick updates. Do you suggest any specific trade from here. I am yet on sidelines waiting for a dip to enter on buy side. Please suggest buy levels, if any and stop loss. Thanks.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh Daga: From my reply to you on 17th October - "Also, i think if i were you, i would go for a buy in zone of 10050 to 9950 with a SL of 9900 and target of 11000 plus levels." This was the trade which actually got triggered last thursday....no other specific trades right now....the dip happened of approx. 400 points from 10409 to 10031.
ReplyDeleteOk.. Missed on that one. Let's see if I find a suitable entry point again. Thanks.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh Daga: I have just been replying to you exclusively so far.....missing that is actually missing it big time...we have to learn to wait for executing the trade with definite stop loss on our analysis....the problem is that we have be cognizant of the fact that time keeps ticking away....and apparently we keep on loosing the opportunity to implement our analysis.
DeleteTrue that. I totally agree to your view point. Nevertheless have gone long on today's dip @ 10270 nifty spot. Let's see how it goes from here. Cheers.
ReplyDeleteAbhishek Sir
ReplyDeletePlease post (as and when convenient to you) internal waves counts of BankNifty
WAVE 5: 23611 - 30500 to 31000
Thanks
@Saumya: Please call me Abhishek
DeleteFor internal wave counts, i will have to study smaller time frames and will come back on this long weekend (Potential wave counts, since we are currently in them right now so how the structure pans out i cannot tell, because that comes naturally and whatever is nature, the shape of the same cannot be predicted, however i will try to be as precise with the numbers and internal wave counts as i can be, its just that will take considerable time with concentrate, which can only happen for me over this weekend)
Thanks
DeleteYes, Abhishek ji, you may take your own time. No hurry.
@Saumya: Just Abhishek is Enough
DeleteHere you go with the Internal Wave Counts of Banknifty from 23600
https://ibb.co/jUiUyb
Thanks, Abhishek, thanks for the pain you took, on my request.
Delete@Saumya: It is my passion no point of pain.I prefer to share what i learn and do. The cycle goes like this: Learn-->Do-->Share and pass on.
DeleteAfter 11800 what abhishek? Is there any possibility to revisit 2250 levels in nifty?
ReplyDelete@Sandy Jhon: Let 11800 happen first, then we will see what is next (what is the rush :-) )
DeleteAlso for the level 2250 you have mentioned, i am assuming based on my experience you have read it somewhere and hence the question.
Wherever this uptrend finishes 11000,11300,11500,11800 or 12000 the reversal from there will for sure lead to 9119, next potential level would be 8000 and extreme scenario 6825.
Let us first wait for this uptrend to take a pause, i assume momentarily there will be a significant correction in the coming couple of weeks and post that the uptrend will continue for both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY (Let us wait for the current uptrend to conclude)
Abhisek dear u urself mentioned that we completing third degree of trend on reaching 11800 from 2252 that is why asked
DeleteAbhisek dear u urself mentioned that we completing third degree of trend on reaching 11800 from 2252 that is why asked
Delete@Sandy Jhon: Understanding what i said by third degree of trend needs some foundation knowledge of Elliott Wave Analysis/Structure. If you want to gain some knowledge i will be more than happy to tell you. Post which you will be able to connect with my posts and would not have such questions. If you understand how waves are structured then you also understand that this cycle of impulsive waves 1,2,3,4,5 and then their correction in form of A,B,C waves keep on repeating themselves at different degrees of trends and this will continue on and on and on.
DeleteDo let me know if you want to have more clarity on what elliott waves are.
My blog primarily gives the levels/zones for both upside and downside of any trading instrument but the foundation for arriving at the calculation is based on Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonnaci Numbers.
Hi Abhishek,
ReplyDeleteGreat call to go long. Looking at your current post, should we exit longs momentarily for lower levels. If so, please suggest and also suggest levels for re-entry. Thanks.
@Saharsh: Thanks for the appreciation, hope you were there from 10270 till now as mentioned by you. Yes you are pretty much in sync with the current uptrend to take a break, the time is very near, the only issues is that usually people are not well equipped to deal with the volatility which is going on right now and will continue to increase in the coming days, so i would advise to book profits in this zone of 11000 to 11100 and wait for a fall till 10700-10600 zone to re enter, with a SL you can manage because there is a very high probability that the SL gets triggered in this highly volatile environment. I anticipate both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY to correct in coming couple of weeks and since BANKNIFTY is bigger in terms of number than NIFTY hence i anticipate more fall in terms of absolute numbers and not in percentage as compared to NIFTY.So trade accordingly.
DeleteThanks Abhi. Any advise on taking short trade till 10700 or simply stay out.
ReplyDeleteThe reason I am asking for shorting is one more possibility of this being an ending diagnol pattern with wave 3 ending below 11335 and from there can fall to 10100-10200 levels as wave 4. Is it a view that can hold good.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh: The bigger wave counts are for upside right now,let them finish first. Also try to do Quality trades which are big gains in absolute number terms which are very less instead of quantity trades which are very small gains in absolute number terms which are very high. High frequency trades are not suggested because the probability of hitting SL becomes more. I hope you continued the buying from 10270 which you mentioned because you would have gained slmost 750-800 points, thought the wait was lot but i am sure it was worth it.
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ReplyDeleteYes. I was on that trade. Now on sidelines waiting for your next trade.
ReplyDeleteHi Abhi,
ReplyDeleteLooks like wave 4 ended at today's low as abc. Is it time to go long for your higher targets. Please do reply with your views. Thanks.
@Saharsh: Now today you can go for a buy SPOT LEVEL 10934 @ 9:35 AM for a quick SL of 10782 and target of new 52 week high 11200-11300 only
DeleteWent long at 10923. Massive sell off since then. Is 10782 a strict SL. Please update. Thanks.
ReplyDelete@Saharash: Yep, thats why gave a strict SL for 10782, just NOTE this is on closing basis.
DeleteToday sl hit in nifty.so is there a trend reversal?
Delete@Manoj: Yes the SL got hit and it is good to hit a SL instead of increasing the panic within yourself. Lets see 10662 is a level that it may test again next week, will keep them posted in my replies.
DeleteThanks for the prompt reply it's good to hear from you always
DeleteOn a different note, missing your auro calls nowadays. Have got stopped tracking that share. You used to give awesome calls on auro. I think it's a buy from current levels for targets of 700 plus. Please suggest if you can on the same as well.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh: For Auro and rather for Pharma Sector, if you skim through my blogs you will see, i have been long bearish on the overall pharma sector, that stand continues to be there.DRREDDY,AURO,WOCK,CIPLA,LUPIN,SUNPHARMA they all are of the same pack and they have been just in a corrective mode since March 2015, i started to write about them in March April 2016 with very long term view of downfall, so fall it has happened and i anticipate that to continue in the same manner, any changes to that will update on the blog next time i write anything, or else if you are looking for something specific, let me know.
DeleteHi Abhi,
ReplyDeleteSL hit. Exited at loss on closing. Please update on the next move, if any. Thanks.
@Saharsh: Alright, good atleast you adhere to the stop loss. Lets wait 10662 can be an entry level. The retracement from top has already happened which was 38.2% retracement of the rise from 10033 to 11171 which is exactly placed at today's low of 10736. Lets wait how far it stretches, this retracement is ideal for a fourth wave correction.Will keep you posted
DeleteYou mentioned fourth wave correction. Are you expecting the market to go down further?
Delete@Sidesh Pai: Looking at wave structure the room is till 10490 and as of Friday the market is pretty oversold in a fall of just 435 points, it looks severe in terms of numbers and on charts but you need to understand that NIFTY as an index has grown big in terms of numbers. A same level of correction happened on from 28th November, 6th November,19th September,2nd August and so on.Sometimes by looking at the fall suddenly confuses the mind that market is either crashing or now it has gone too long and should reverse. This primarily happens because of either one's emotions or incomplete knowledge of the market structure. Elliott Wave gives you the perpsective of markets from largest term to smallest term of time frames.As per rules and guidelines, it is still at those levels where it is still being governed by Elliott Waves, any anomaly if found will keep the blog posted.I hope it has given you some clarity on the question you had.
DeleteVery apt reading bro !!!
DeleteHi. Thanks for the update. Can you please write a test email to me on saharshdaga@hotmail.com. I wanr to share something with you. Thanks.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh: Test Mail sent
DeleteAbhishek sgx is down 300 points does it suggest a change in wave structure or the dip will be bought
ReplyDelete@Manoj:Trading in these circumstances require a certain level of patience which helps in executing trades in this kind of panic and volatile environment. The post ideally was wrote in October considering the long term wave count. I replied to someone in the blog that "since we are currently in them (wave counts) right now so how the structure pans out i cannot tell, because that comes naturally and whatever is nature, the shape of the same cannot be predicted,hence i am still trying to understand the inner wave structure as it is happening. The intent of writing this post was to give ranges as to how much the markets have the potential to move on upside.Both Nifty and Banknifty touched the initial zone but fell after that,now deciphering, whether we still have a chance for all time new highs again above 11171 for nifty and above 27651, we have to wait for that.
DeleteThanks a lot for the clarification but in this circumstances tough to take call as to go long or short.thanks again
Delete@Manoj: Correct volatility and panic in the market makes it difficult for the traders.
DeleteHI bro..could u share wave counts on auro... i think wave 1 done from 503-809 and now waave 2 retracement about to end... ready for wave 3 up?
ReplyDelete@Prashant Bhansali: Looks like Auro is going for 500 and below till 470, though the RSI is showing oversold on daily basis but there is a channel going on currently, of that channel the upper trendline starts at 27/10/2017 and extends through 1/1/2018...extend that trendline till date and draw a parallel trendline from 9/10/2017 low and connect through 9/2/2018 low and extend it further, making it a channel, you will come to know that it may bounce sharply on upside till 632 zone and the RSI will also shoot up very quickly in overbought zone, from there AURO will move back to zone of 500 and below till 470.
DeleteThanks dear
Delete@Prashant Bhansali: As mentioned in my previous reply to you on 9th February, AURO is ultimately reaching the zone i mentioned, after going further down from 580 to 560 and bouncing back now.Today's high was 616.70.On smaller time frames like 1 hour chart, this seems to be almost ready for a reversal and is very near to a potential top.Hope you now have a clarity on the same.
Deleteyes bro got it...
Delete@Prashant Bhansali: Hope you were sell in AURO from the potential zone i mentioned on 26th February, when it was at 616.70, it went onto make 628 and cracked from there till 590 yesterday,bounced today till 620 again and now the downfall should continue.That's what i posted on Slack group of yours also.More levels to come for downside.
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ReplyDeleteAbhishek the market is not bouncing back as advised by u from 10600-700 rather falling....what u say 9119 first or 11500
ReplyDelete@Sandy John: Yes Sandy,that is why there i replied Saharsh that trade with SL which you can manage.The current downtrend from 11171 to 10276,looks like the first leg of this fall and the updown happening since then in the zone of 10600-10300 is the diagnol which was getting narrowed day by day, gave a momentary break out on Friday 23rd February and hence nifty rallied.Also, this bounce is not sustainable and the reversal should happen within a range of 50 points from Friday's high of 10499 for zone of 10276 and below till 10050 to 9915 to extreme zone of 9900-9700, which should complete this down trend.Since getting deeper into smaller/internal wave counts becomes complex and the structure gives clarity only when it is created. The internal wave count would be slightly modified.The top at 11171 highly likely is a wave 3 top where fifth wave from 10033 to 11171 was an extension in fifth wave of wave 3 started from 7893, hence the correction should complete in zone of 10033-9800 zone.
DeleteAbhishek ji, please update your analysis for Nifty and BankNifty for March and March onwards. Thanks
ReplyDelete@Saumya: If you recall my original post,you would find that i mentioned: "The above views remain intact till the time we do not break 9685 on NIFTY and 23611 for BANKNIFTY. So, from here approx 1000-1500 points rally in NIFTY and approx 5000 - 6000 points rally in BANKNIFTY."
DeleteSo this still holds true.
And since this time, this was an analysis and not a trading idea with a defined SL.Though i updated Saharsh on the exit from his buy from 10200 zones at 11010 and suggested a buying with a strict SL of just 100 points,which got triggered.
So till the view of 9687 and 23600 for NIFTY and BANKNIFTY holds good,this analysis holds good.
Hi Abhishek. If Nifty opens Gap up tomorrow at 10550 what would be a good SL for shorts. Thanks.
ReplyDelete@Sidesh: Today market opened gap up at 10526 as compared to previous close of 10491, made a high of 10592 and closed at 10576. If anyone has to take a short position then 10702 on closing basis should be the Stop Loss for a target of 10276 and below till 10050-9915 zone and 9800-9700 zone.
DeleteThanks Abhishek
ReplyDelete@Sidesh: I hope you were short on NIFTY when i replied to you for the short query of SL to be taken as 10702 on 26th February 2018 for downside targets below 10276 when it was 10576+ zone.You may want to cover your positions or keep on trailing your stop loss if you wish to wait for 10050 to 9915 zone.
Delete