Morning !
The last update on NIFTY given by me was on 14th March 2017. I would like to re-iterate that my posts are usually when the pattern starts showing some signs of reversals, i do not write daily.
Coming back to the last post: Post on 14th March 2017
Below is the excerpt from the post.
"Since the Wave 1 top 7777 was not taken out by Wave 4 on downside i.e., 8968-7893 and it again went up above Wave 3 high of 8968 by making 8992, the case again opens for a new high above 9119 which SGX Nifty has already shown up in Global Indices segment by ensuring Approximately 220 + points so a rough calculation of spot price as on Friday i.e., 8934 + 220 takes it upto 9154 taking out 9119 and making all time new high, but this potential gap up should fizzle out soon in a week or two weeks time frame again in the zone of 9150-9250-9350 and finish this rally which started from 6825 and subsequently a bigger wave which started from 2252 way back on 27th October 2008."
The Minimum requirement for NIFTY at 9350 is fulfilled and it is giving very loud signals for a correction (Intermediate or Mid-long term...will have to wait to know that).
Selling NIFTY in the zone of 9375-9425 with a STRICT SL of 9450 ON CLOSING BASIS
(Why a STRICT SL, only because it is a pattern we are trying to identify and trade on it, predicting certain numbers when few criteria are met gives out the probability of a plausible reversal be it on upside or downside - in this case a downside, with a STOP LOSS if hits then saves you a lot of time/money/energy to sit out and wait patiently for the next trade based on revised levels, as we have waited almost a month and a half for entering into one)
The Volatility Index VIX for NIFTY has it closed at an all time low (since its inception from September 2009) of 10.86 on 28th March 2017, giving signals of an inevitable reversal in the coming days for NIFTY (Magnitude of the fall is yet to be ascertained)
BANKNIFTY again made a new high of 22492.15 on 2nd May 2017. It is also at a cusp of a reversal/correction (time span need to wait)
Selling BANKNIFTY in the zone of 22300-22500 with a STRICT SL of 22750 (Range for Banknifty is on the higher side because of the volatile nature it has)
Nifty IT and Nifty PHARMA indices along with stocks within them like INFY, TECHM, TCS in the IT pack and DRREDDY, AUROPHARMA, SUNPHARMA, LUPIN have corrected in a range of 10-20% over the period of last One and a half month.
Both Nifty IT and Nifty PHARMA are about to reverse from zones of 9800-9900 (IT) and 9600-9700 (PHARMA) respectively in the coming weeks.
As far as individual stocks are concerned, specifically MARUTI, i mentioned in my last post : Post on 14th March 2017
Excerpt from my post:
"Looks like the 5800 made on 8th March is the beginning of the last rise for targets of 6233 + levels like 6250-6350-6450 max uptill 6500. Not giving any trade call on this one, let it finish the upside above 6233 only then will give the potential level to sell with a mini SL for the same downside target of 4790-3200 range of the positional target call."
I had an assumption of 6500 on upside as a max level, today it made a high of 6730. MARUTI seems to now complete the overall wave count started from 1250 somewhere in September 2013.
Selling here MARUTI in the zone of 6750-6800 with a STRICT SL of 6850 ON CLOSING BASIS for the same targets as mentioned last time in the rage of 4790-3200 as positional targets (Time frame needs to wait)
Referring to USDINR Buy Call given on 28th March 2017 in zone of 65.15 - 64.95 with a STRICT SL OF 64.75, it triggered the SL of 64.75 in April Expiry on 6th April 2017. Because the day SL was triggered the downfall became more severe and the near term low for USDINR Near Term Future (May) is registered as 64.2025 on 26th April.
A momentary Reversal in USDINR is also in place in coming trading sessions with today's close as 64.4525.
Anyone willing to buy here can take a strict SL of 64.1550 in May Expiry and trade for a target of 1 to 1.5 rupees i.e., zone of 65.45 to 65.95 on the USDINR in this expiry.
In Commodities GOLD and SILVER are at key levels of reversal.
Buying GOLD in $1250-$1260 zone with a STRICT SL OF $1240 on CLOSING BASIS and target of $1300-$1375-$1400-$1425-$1450 in the coming next 6 months to 1 year.
Buying SILVER in $16.70-$16.80 zone with a STRICT SL of $16.60 on CLOSING BASIS and target of $18.65-$19.00-$21-$22 in the coming next 6 months to 1 year.
DOW JONES also reversed from 20379 on 19th April and almost touched the all time high of 21169 by falling short of 100 odd points at 21070 on 26th April. The minimum requirement for DOW JONES is a new high above 21169, post that it may lead to 21200-21500 zone for final reversal.
Happy Trading !
The last update on NIFTY given by me was on 14th March 2017. I would like to re-iterate that my posts are usually when the pattern starts showing some signs of reversals, i do not write daily.
Coming back to the last post: Post on 14th March 2017
Below is the excerpt from the post.
"Since the Wave 1 top 7777 was not taken out by Wave 4 on downside i.e., 8968-7893 and it again went up above Wave 3 high of 8968 by making 8992, the case again opens for a new high above 9119 which SGX Nifty has already shown up in Global Indices segment by ensuring Approximately 220 + points so a rough calculation of spot price as on Friday i.e., 8934 + 220 takes it upto 9154 taking out 9119 and making all time new high, but this potential gap up should fizzle out soon in a week or two weeks time frame again in the zone of 9150-9250-9350 and finish this rally which started from 6825 and subsequently a bigger wave which started from 2252 way back on 27th October 2008."
The Minimum requirement for NIFTY at 9350 is fulfilled and it is giving very loud signals for a correction (Intermediate or Mid-long term...will have to wait to know that).
Selling NIFTY in the zone of 9375-9425 with a STRICT SL of 9450 ON CLOSING BASIS
(Why a STRICT SL, only because it is a pattern we are trying to identify and trade on it, predicting certain numbers when few criteria are met gives out the probability of a plausible reversal be it on upside or downside - in this case a downside, with a STOP LOSS if hits then saves you a lot of time/money/energy to sit out and wait patiently for the next trade based on revised levels, as we have waited almost a month and a half for entering into one)
The Volatility Index VIX for NIFTY has it closed at an all time low (since its inception from September 2009) of 10.86 on 28th March 2017, giving signals of an inevitable reversal in the coming days for NIFTY (Magnitude of the fall is yet to be ascertained)
BANKNIFTY again made a new high of 22492.15 on 2nd May 2017. It is also at a cusp of a reversal/correction (time span need to wait)
Selling BANKNIFTY in the zone of 22300-22500 with a STRICT SL of 22750 (Range for Banknifty is on the higher side because of the volatile nature it has)
Nifty IT and Nifty PHARMA indices along with stocks within them like INFY, TECHM, TCS in the IT pack and DRREDDY, AUROPHARMA, SUNPHARMA, LUPIN have corrected in a range of 10-20% over the period of last One and a half month.
Both Nifty IT and Nifty PHARMA are about to reverse from zones of 9800-9900 (IT) and 9600-9700 (PHARMA) respectively in the coming weeks.
As far as individual stocks are concerned, specifically MARUTI, i mentioned in my last post : Post on 14th March 2017
Excerpt from my post:
"Looks like the 5800 made on 8th March is the beginning of the last rise for targets of 6233 + levels like 6250-6350-6450 max uptill 6500. Not giving any trade call on this one, let it finish the upside above 6233 only then will give the potential level to sell with a mini SL for the same downside target of 4790-3200 range of the positional target call."
I had an assumption of 6500 on upside as a max level, today it made a high of 6730. MARUTI seems to now complete the overall wave count started from 1250 somewhere in September 2013.
Selling here MARUTI in the zone of 6750-6800 with a STRICT SL of 6850 ON CLOSING BASIS for the same targets as mentioned last time in the rage of 4790-3200 as positional targets (Time frame needs to wait)
Referring to USDINR Buy Call given on 28th March 2017 in zone of 65.15 - 64.95 with a STRICT SL OF 64.75, it triggered the SL of 64.75 in April Expiry on 6th April 2017. Because the day SL was triggered the downfall became more severe and the near term low for USDINR Near Term Future (May) is registered as 64.2025 on 26th April.
A momentary Reversal in USDINR is also in place in coming trading sessions with today's close as 64.4525.
Anyone willing to buy here can take a strict SL of 64.1550 in May Expiry and trade for a target of 1 to 1.5 rupees i.e., zone of 65.45 to 65.95 on the USDINR in this expiry.
In Commodities GOLD and SILVER are at key levels of reversal.
Buying GOLD in $1250-$1260 zone with a STRICT SL OF $1240 on CLOSING BASIS and target of $1300-$1375-$1400-$1425-$1450 in the coming next 6 months to 1 year.
Buying SILVER in $16.70-$16.80 zone with a STRICT SL of $16.60 on CLOSING BASIS and target of $18.65-$19.00-$21-$22 in the coming next 6 months to 1 year.
DOW JONES also reversed from 20379 on 19th April and almost touched the all time high of 21169 by falling short of 100 odd points at 21070 on 26th April. The minimum requirement for DOW JONES is a new high above 21169, post that it may lead to 21200-21500 zone for final reversal.
Happy Trading !
sir ur sl 9450 on closing basis is still intact or any change in the pattern? banknifty sl already taken out.
ReplyDeleteYes both are triggered...sitting on sidelines....
DeleteBoth nifty and Banknifty stop loss taken. Can we have a revised stop loss?
ReplyDeleteYes Mani......Yes both are triggered...sitting on sidelines....STRICT SL is STRICT SL....atleast it is safer that ways.....nothing new
Deleteok sir. waiting for ur next update.
ReplyDeletesir if instead of waiting a fall had we gone long since 9000 would have earn lot of money. now whats ur views sir ji
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: I was waiting for someone to ask such a question,you know probably that i also mentioned exit in Early January......at 7800,that was a one big buying position that i could have been in.....but i missed that opportunity and was not able to decipher the complete pattern.....buying at 9000 does not comes into the picture at all.....at this juncture the bare minimum requirement was above 9119 uptil 9350 that is why i gave a mini SL of 75 points and wanted to go short...on upside the room is open till 10825 but when trading you have to work with first level of your analysis and take the risk,which i did, once that is hit...the trade is over.....at this juncture i am not of a view of buying for sure, irrespective of NIFTY going till 10825, there are always alternative trades one can go for....i have been bearish on PHARMA stocks overall from almost last 6 months....and finally the pattern revealed and is now evident of the current position of PHARMA index and PHARMA stocks like DRREDDY, SUNPHARMA, WOCKPHARMA, AUROPHARMA, LUPIN etc.
DeleteThere are alternative wave counts that Elliott Waves gives you but i stick to the one side only as having a double mind about the analysis....does not helps you in the long run...and that is why you have seen that whenever i give a trade the risk reward ratio is usually 1:5 upto 1:20. So will stick to wait for the fall.
thanks a lot sir for your view.
ReplyDeleteOne more query sir, Now above 9600 shall we wait more or increase our short positions lot by lot. if yes where to place the strict sl.
ReplyDelete@Neeraj: Strict SL has already triggered for me Neeraj....that was given by me...which was 9450.....i adhere to my STRICT SL...u see......there are multiple ways you can see how a trader thinks....keeping a STRICT SL OR Keep on averaging....etc..etc...no method is right or wrong, it is just what you choose to do and can stand till the last penny of your trading account....i choose the former approach...once it is hit...it is hit....i then prefer to alternative stock trades as in option stock trades....
ReplyDeleteIs the up move done in nifty and bank nifty in short to medium term perspective ? or still some steam left ?
ReplyDelete@Somnath Babhale: Looks like the uptrend has potentially finished,for NIFTY and BANKNIFTY. But i would still give a STRICT STOP LOSS on NIFTY at 10325 on closing basis, any short made here at 10000 should follow that stop loss, because if that goes out then it has again the capacity to reach 10825,i am specifically not writing on both INDICES neither buying nor selling, for buying because i assume that this is the last leg up and for selling because i want some clarification further of the trend, once i am confident enough would write again. I hope your answer was answered, do revert if you still have any further queries.
Deletethank. got clear view.
DeleteSo what is your target on d downside once correction sets in
ReplyDelete@Anuj Maheshwari: As i replied to Somnath just above your query, i am not writing my next blog till i get more clarity and further based on that confidence....my endeavour has always been to give lucrative risk reward ratio trades certainly with a STRICT stop loss which can be borne by a trader. I have been of selling view since it broke 9325 on upside....this structure has the ability to go 10325 and 10825, but looking at other factors and sectors and stocks along with multiple sector PE ratios, i am not very convinced for buying here atleast and also not convinced for selling till i get more clarity....hoping indices to reverse sooner than later....will keep you guyz posted for the same.....Friday's closing gave a good indication of downtrend till 9500-9250 zone but will have to wait again for 9900 to break on SPOT levels on closing basis....
DeleteAny fresh updates Abhi now that we have closed below 9900.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh Daga: Apologies for delayed response....have been waiting for the wave structure to unfold.I will publish my complete view (updated wave counts) for sure on this weekend 10 September 2017.
Deleteplease have a look at the chart n EW of infy.
ReplyDeletefrom 1279.30 5 impulsive down waves and three corrective up waves over below previous high.
new down impulsive wave started from 1029.35 last week. is this suggesting bear cycle / bigger wave three started in infy ??
even on charts broke down from trading range. 900 - 930 was good support area.
@Somnath: Apologies for delayed response....Yes from 1279.30 (made on 3rd June 2016)....WAVE A completed till 901 (made on 9th November 2016).....WAVE B went in a (UP), b (DOWN), c (UP) format where a of B made at 1040 (on 13th January 2017) , b of B made at 901.15 (on 27th January 2017), c of B made at 1044 (on 24th March 2017) respectively.
DeleteNow C (impulsive) started from 1044,specifically C.1 started from 1044 and ended at 910.20 on 26th April 2017, C.2 went up down up in same a b c format 1000, 921, 1029.25 on 30th May, 28th June, 17th August respectively.From 1029 C.3 started with sudden sharp fall (true characteristics of Wave 3 in C). Only C.3.1 seems to be completed at 860 made on 22nd August 2017 now C.3.2 went to 953.95 and now C.3.3 coming down....i do have a target of 750 and below levels on INFY since long time....since the wave structure unfolds in its own time so cannot really give exact time only can give ranges. Though my previous blogs have been bearish about both Pharma and IT sectors and they have witnessed decent corrections too.
Hope your query is cleared on INFY.
it's ok, i can understand. thanks for the reply.
Deletedaily head n shoulder pattern in making in nifty. looks like nifty breaking down. medium term trend changing. technical indicators are showing bearish divergences. any view ??
ReplyDelete@Somnath: Well the patter H&S you mentioned sometimes camouflages the overall pattern, whereas wave counts give you more clarity and then you can fit in any sort of pattern in them. I have just updated my blog today 16th October 2017, go through it. It has my complete view for both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY
Delete