Morning !
From my previous post on 7th November:
Fall from 8968-8555 was a perfect A B C fall post that the rise till 8806 was the a wave of X wave then fall till 8506 was b wave of X wave and the rise till 8736 was c wave of X wave, making this a complex correction of Double zig zag so far W X Y correction. W had the first A B C fall from 8968 - 8688 - 8893 till 8555 completing the W wave. X was completed as explained above by Xa Xb Xc and from 8736 Y wave started again in form of A B C 8736-8550 a ..... 8550-8678 b...... 8678-8400 c.....completing the Y wave and hence the double zig zag.
CORRECTION: This is double zig zag in which 8678 to 8400 is the second C of double zig zag's ABC.
Re-iterating the Wave counts from 6825 till now
Since the wave one was 6825 to 7777.....top of wave 1 ended at 7777 the fall from 8968 cannot take out this zone as per the wave principle.....non over lapping rule. Wave 4 cannot take out the top of wave 1.
To be honest i was expecting a 38.2% retracement of wave 3 which was (7516 to 8968 = 1452 points). A 38.2% retracement ended at 1452 x 38.2% = 554 points = 8968 - 554 =8413 when nifty made a low of 8400 on 4th November.
But next levels of retracements were 50% and 61.8% coming to be at 8242 and 8070 respectively. NIFTY went slightly more than 61.8% retracement by making a low of 8002 on 9th November.
Whatever extreme movements we are experiencing are because of the prevailing panic sentiment of currency demonetization, which will soon end and it has not taken out any rules or principals of wave structure so far.
The kind of reversal experienced on 9th November both in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY gave an indication of the bottom. NIFTY covered 475 points and BANKNIFTY covered 1470 points from their day lows.
I had given 100 points stop loss at 8550 selling price which was 8450, that was primarily keeping in mind the downtrend channel NIFTY has been travelling since 8968, any close below that level created sudden extreme movements.
Trade only with hedges to counteract these extreme movements.
Happy Trading !
From my previous post on 7th November:
Fall from 8968-8555 was a perfect A B C fall post that the rise till 8806 was the a wave of X wave then fall till 8506 was b wave of X wave and the rise till 8736 was c wave of X wave, making this a complex correction of Double zig zag so far W X Y correction. W had the first A B C fall from 8968 - 8688 - 8893 till 8555 completing the W wave. X was completed as explained above by Xa Xb Xc and from 8736 Y wave started again in form of A B C 8736-8550 a ..... 8550-8678 b...... 8678-8400 c.....completing the Y wave and hence the double zig zag.
CORRECTION: This is double zig zag in which 8678 to 8400 is the second C of double zig zag's ABC.
Re-iterating the Wave counts from 6825 till now
Since the wave one was 6825 to 7777.....top of wave 1 ended at 7777 the fall from 8968 cannot take out this zone as per the wave principle.....non over lapping rule. Wave 4 cannot take out the top of wave 1.
To be honest i was expecting a 38.2% retracement of wave 3 which was (7516 to 8968 = 1452 points). A 38.2% retracement ended at 1452 x 38.2% = 554 points = 8968 - 554 =8413 when nifty made a low of 8400 on 4th November.
But next levels of retracements were 50% and 61.8% coming to be at 8242 and 8070 respectively. NIFTY went slightly more than 61.8% retracement by making a low of 8002 on 9th November.
Whatever extreme movements we are experiencing are because of the prevailing panic sentiment of currency demonetization, which will soon end and it has not taken out any rules or principals of wave structure so far.
The kind of reversal experienced on 9th November both in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY gave an indication of the bottom. NIFTY covered 475 points and BANKNIFTY covered 1470 points from their day lows.
I had given 100 points stop loss at 8550 selling price which was 8450, that was primarily keeping in mind the downtrend channel NIFTY has been travelling since 8968, any close below that level created sudden extreme movements.
Trade only with hedges to counteract these extreme movements.
Happy Trading !
So that means targets given earlier are still intact for nifty and bnf?... do you suggest any SL if one intends to buy here?
ReplyDeleteMJ: Giving a stop loss here is like a sure shot trigger of the stop loss, the Volatility is too much, SL is bound to get triggered. If now anyone wants to buy then he/she needs to hedge with options
ReplyDeleteok... all right!
ReplyDeleteThanks,
I'm holding longs in December future Abhi bhai. Call Options are highly gambling. Premium is eroding like anything. Yesterday Nifty closed Flat but call options are 40% down.
ReplyDeletesir as per your analysis 8002 will not be taken out. but if it happens, what levels would you see in December??? 7777 !!! please guide sir.
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: Yes 8002 so far has completed a double zig zag from top i.e., 8968...but if 8002 also goes down then a triple zig zag would form and test 7777....getting a confirmation on this will be difficult,will have to wait for the structure,also for trading either be stock specific or trade for very small disciplined profits.
Deletethanks for enlighting us sir.
DeleteAbhi... As of now 8002 has already taken out and made another low at 7916... so what is your view based on this situation? would you like to take another look at your counts?
ReplyDeleteabhi sir has already told this in reply of my query... it may visit 7777.
ReplyDeleteabhi sir has already told this in reply of my query... it may visit 7777.
ReplyDeleteyes... I saw that comment... all I wanted to make sure whether it has/is formed triple zigzag to revisit 7777 level, looking at current upside in nifty.... this is something he has not yet confirmed...
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteMani remember...always say to what you can stick...try avoiding deletion of messages....learn to face where your call is not a success in the same manner as you face success.
DeleteHi bro I didnt post that message and that's why I removed. It was mis used by somebody. I changed the password now.
Deletesir a short term double top is formed at around 8251-8264 zone, and in follow up buying it could not cross 8296,post rbi policy. now what levels are u seeing in coming days towards 7916 or 8405...?
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: Apologies for the delayed response....i know it has been almost a week when you asked this...i feel, that we are going down once again below 7916 and again 7777 is the decider as it was this year in March 2016....closings below 7777 will trigger a fall till 6825....but if NIFTY is able to manage above 7777 then it is going for 9119+ levels....9300-9500-9800-10000.Just keep this in mind about 7777.Otherwise stock specific trades have been fabulous so far,my expectation for both IT and PHARMA has been so far achieved.I personally am trading in banknifty weekly options based on intraday trades.I will be post few of my trades in banknifty weekly options on my blog.
Deletethanks sir
DeleteI am still Bearish in Nifty. Nifty will go little up to 8390 and from there can go below 8000 again with strict stop loss 8500. But as per alternate count, FED meeting is crucial to decide the trend. If goes above 8500, then need to chk the wave structure
ReplyDeletesir today was the ideal occasion for nifty to break 7927 but it hs taken a U turn from 7942 only, do you this as a trend reversal for time being for still some down side is due. Probable upside and downside till expiry, if u can guide us a bit, will be very thankful to you sir as always...
ReplyDelete@Neeraj: Remember we cannot time the market precisely/ideally...we can only give ranges and potential levels....though i understand by saing this that we had the ideal occasion/condition for nifty to break 7927...but it has taken U turn from 7942....but we need to understand that the markets never go in one direction in one go....all the ups and downs you witness in while going up or coming down......are intermediate corrections at various degrees of the trend like a minute chart...a 5 minute chart...a 10 minutes chart...and so on till the maximum time frame you may select....also i do not give levels as per expiry....since it is being time specific...but again as mentioned last week i felt that we should go below 7916 when nifty was in 8100 series....i cannot time perfectly but i can give you potential time frames and levels....so irrespective it has taken a U turn...but it will eventually come down below 7916....and my level this time will be 7865 zone
DeleteHi... Are we done with the low today or you still expect more down side before reversal.
Deletesir whatever I say in favor of ur analysis, will not be enough I bow down...Hats off....Salute to the master.
Delete@Saharsh Daga: I have mentioned 7865 zone this time...and if you go through my replies to Neeraj on 7777 level...you will come to know my view.
Delete@Neeraj: That is one hell of an appreciation i have lately received....thanks Neeraj for the extra ordinary kind words.
Deletethank you so very much sir, I am highly obliged as always...
ReplyDeleteYou are welcome Neeraj
DeleteThanks Abhi for the reply... What should be the trigger to go long...
ReplyDelete@Saharsh Daga: I will update the trigger price,as of now i am too waiting for the structure to complete....either 7777 breaks on downside or 8175 on upside....till then wait and watch for me
DeleteHi Abhi... Thanks for your reply. We crossed and closed above 8175 today. Any views for going long. Pls update. Thanks.
ReplyDelete@Saharsh: I have just posted posted on my blog, which should address your query.
DeleteABHISHEK SIR JI
ReplyDeleteTHANKS A LOT FOR TAKING TIME TO REPLY ALL MY QUERIES AND GIVING UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT WHENEVER I ASKED YOU IN 2016.
MAY THIS YEAR 2017 BRING LOT OF HAPPINESS AND JOY AND PROSPERITY IN YOUR LIFE. HAPPY NEW YEAR 2017.
THANKS A LOT!!!
ABHISHEK SIR JI
ReplyDeleteTHANKS A LOT FOR TAKING TIME TO REPLY ALL MY QUERIES AND GIVING UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT WHENEVER I ASKED YOU IN 2016.
MAY THIS YEAR 2017 BRING LOT OF HAPPINESS AND JOY AND PROSPERITY IN YOUR LIFE. HAPPY NEW YEAR 2017.
THANKS A LOT!!!
@Neeraj: Thanks, please call me Abhishek...Sir gives me a feeling of old age...LOL....Happy New Year to you too and thank you for always showing faith in my analysis.
ReplyDelete