Morning !
NIFTY WAVE COUNTS mentioned in my last post
WAVE 1 : 6825-7777
WAVE 2: 7777-7516
WAVE 3: 7516-8850 to 9000 zone Actual end at 8968
WAVE 4: 8850 to 9000 Actual top 8968 till 8650-8450 zone potential
WAVE 5: 8650-8450 to 9119+ levels like 9150-9350-9550 (Estimated top will have to wait for the wave structure)
The top of WAVE 3 was in between 8850-9000 at 8968. Now wave 4 has further sub divided into A B C
WAVE 4 A: 8968-8688
WAVE 4 B: 8688-8893
WAVE 4 C: 8893- (8650-8450) POTENTIAL
This wave 4 will end with 4C and the windows for this is highly like to finish around last wave 4 low i.e., 8540 created on 28th August.
Since this is an impulsive wave correction, i would advise to start exiting your shorts between the potential zone 8650-8450....and.....by looking at the wave structure.....creating a buy position will be best in zone of 8580 +/-
30 points....i.e., 8550-8610 should be a good buying zone for final target of WAVE 5 in zone of 9150-9550 for the next 2 to 3 months.
BANKNIFTY WAVE COUNTS
WAVE 1 : 13407-16282 (29th February 2016 to 31st March 2016)
WAVE 2: 16282-15440 (31st March 2016 to 11th April 2016)
WAVE 3: 15440- 20000 to 20100 zone POTENTIAL (Actual top 20575)
WAVE 4: 20000 to 20100 zone (Actual 20575) to Revised zone of 19400-19000 POTENTIAL
WAVE 5: Revised zone of 19400-19000 POTENTIAL to 21500 to 22000 zone POTENTIAL
FOR BANKNIFTY the buying can be triggered around 19300-19100 zone for upside final targets of 21500-22000
PS: The only reason i do not update my blog daily is that i don't see the pattern changing on a daily basis, i only post when i see potential reversals both on upside and downside.
Happy Trading !
WAVE 1 : 6825-7777
WAVE 2: 7777-7516
WAVE 3: 7516-8850 to 9000 zone Actual end at 8968
WAVE 4: 8850 to 9000 Actual top 8968 till 8650-8450 zone potential
WAVE 5: 8650-8450 to 9119+ levels like 9150-9350-9550 (Estimated top will have to wait for the wave structure)
The top of WAVE 3 was in between 8850-9000 at 8968. Now wave 4 has further sub divided into A B C
WAVE 4 A: 8968-8688
WAVE 4 B: 8688-8893
WAVE 4 C: 8893- (8650-8450) POTENTIAL
This wave 4 will end with 4C and the windows for this is highly like to finish around last wave 4 low i.e., 8540 created on 28th August.
Since this is an impulsive wave correction, i would advise to start exiting your shorts between the potential zone 8650-8450....and.....by looking at the wave structure.....creating a buy position will be best in zone of 8580 +/-
30 points....i.e., 8550-8610 should be a good buying zone for final target of WAVE 5 in zone of 9150-9550 for the next 2 to 3 months.
BANKNIFTY WAVE COUNTS
WAVE 1 : 13407-16282 (29th February 2016 to 31st March 2016)
WAVE 2: 16282-15440 (31st March 2016 to 11th April 2016)
WAVE 3: 15440- 20000 to 20100 zone POTENTIAL (Actual top 20575)
WAVE 4: 20000 to 20100 zone (Actual 20575) to Revised zone of 19400-19000 POTENTIAL
WAVE 5: Revised zone of 19400-19000 POTENTIAL to 21500 to 22000 zone POTENTIAL
FOR BANKNIFTY the buying can be triggered around 19300-19100 zone for upside final targets of 21500-22000
PS: The only reason i do not update my blog daily is that i don't see the pattern changing on a daily basis, i only post when i see potential reversals both on upside and downside.
Happy Trading !
sir i have taken long call at 8577 as per ur suggestion with a view to hold for 10-15 days, seems a bit shaky call as indo-pak tensions are also there. have I done the right thing sir.
ReplyDeletesir i have taken long call at 8577 as per ur suggestion with a view to hold for 10-15 days, seems a bit shaky call as indo-pak tensions are also there. have I done the right thing sir.
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: You know that news and reasons come automatically later on, there is no method in the world that you will be able to figure out that how a geo political issue is going to impact our markets. It cannot give you a number that market will fall or rise. I think you are one of the very few people who would have bought yesterday. Just hold on the ground. I have not given any SL though, because chances of it getting triggered gets higher in a volatile market...and i expect it to reverse from where it did yesterday...so hang on...btw...have you bought options or futures and what strike price and rates.
Deletesir thank you very much for responding. I bought 30 lots of 8900 call October at average 47 yesterday.
ReplyDeletesir thank you very much for responding. I bought 30 lots of 8900 call October at average 47 yesterday.
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: few things, first i gave a call on MMB too,which reflects my same view as of my blog,i have given a target of 9000+ like 9119 9350 9550 but the time frame i have mentioned is 1 to 2 months, so your option strike price that you have selected for your calls i.e., 8900 is subject to loose premium, irrespective it is just the beginning of this month expiry. Because any ups and downs in the market will keep on eroding premium so keep a target of 50% plus say 24 rupees like 71 plus levels,this is simple fair value calculation of strike and spot levels....so keep these things in mind....buying futures or niftybees could have been a better choice....as compared to options
DeleteGreat advice on the 8900 ce. So far high is 78 only.u advice to get 50% profit @71. Eventhough Nifty nears 8800 with so many days remaining for Expiry, this is not getting doubled. Also I observed many call options are not creeping much as like before. Only if fii imvests, it will creep rapidly???
DeleteIts usual for abhishek sir, he has always been giving bang on targets. this one was just a tip for me and right into the slot 👍. stay glued mani ji for more such updates!
Deletethanks for valuable advice sir. actually I thought if mkt reverses from here, then my calls will be doubled at least. anyways I'm hopeful of big gap up tomorrow and then I'll wait for Europe to open, if our market sustains after Europe i will take a risk for one more day till rbi policy is announced keeping sl cost to cost.
ReplyDeleteJaha itna paisa gaya hai, ek aur chance le leta hu sir. let's see what's in the store.
i shall always be obliged for your kind and quick responses sir ji. thanks again 👍👍👍
Neeraj: Thanks Neeraj.....
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ReplyDeletesir yesterday we saw some selling pressure, will nifty be able to sustain its crucial support of 8550 in coming days?
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: Highly likely yes, from 8555 to 8806 to witnessed 1st wave of this 5th wave and from 8806 to current low 8684 or a bit lower we are witnessing wave 2 of this 5th wave from here....straight 3rd wave on upside for 8968 + levels....
DeleteAbhishek, is this right time to buy OR bullishness is going to end here as lot of negative factors are coming in.
ReplyDeleteUnkown: I would advised you to use your ID while asking questions, anyways. All these negative factors cannot give you a number for NIFTY, that where will nifty land. I think for NIFTY 8450-8350 zone and for BANKNIFTY 19800-19725 zone is good for buying, however taking stop loss as per your capacity is imperative to trade and survive.
DeleteThanks abhishek.
Deletetoday nifty saved its surgical strike day low and closed well above that and nifty future also showed resistance and turned sharply from 8551.... any change in your views or now we are going to see new highs from here. as of now its happening exactly as u said.
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: Yeah the levels got breached today, but i dont see much down thatn 8450-8350 zone on downside and for BANKNIFTY 19800-19725, on downside.
DeleteToday's low has trigger stop loss for all longs. What's next? Will Nifty kiss below 8400 or will it recover sharply? Next month US election and lot of news and events coming on. Many Quarterly results.
ReplyDeleteMani: I have told you many times, i do not know how to estimate markets on news and events going on gloably, i know and give the same knowledge. Even Elliott wave does not gives you the right number,but it gives you perspective towards the key behaviour of markets. So my levels i have mentioned in the post just above you.
DeleteOctober contract have been loaded up with longs and call options. to trap them, market spot will not cross 8700 in this expiry for sure. exact buy level @ spot 8460 with 8380 as stop loss for a target of 8666/8700/9000 in November contract
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteStill 8460 on the card. BUT 8740 should be a vvvv strict stop loss. so, no worries creating fresh shorts @ 8690 with 50 points stop loss and 150 to 200 points downside target. Don't execute any trade without a stop loss. It's like a boat ride without life jacket. also know your stop loss points correctly and not roughly. rally from 6825 to 8969 holds 2100+ odd points and it needs solid 520 to 580 points for retracement for next up-leg towards 9200. so far, 8969 to 8506 is down with 463 points and this current upmove should not exceed 50% which is @8737 and that's why gave 8740 as strict stop loss. yesterday, my stop loss point was 8618 when NF was @8594 jus 24 points see 8618 to made high @ 8685
ReplyDeletewhat targets u see if it breaches 8740. like Abhishek sir already of a bullish view heading towards 9100+. Any solid reason for contrarian views. not questioning ut abilities nor I can but want to give a pause to my curiosity.
Deleteregards.
Breach above 8740 and 8806 with huge volume take Nifty to 9180 surely. As Abhi bhai mentioned, impulsive wave 5 started. Ideally 8506 should be the bottom of wave 4. Itseems we are in wave 5 and (i) of wave 5 is over from 8506 to 8727 and now (ii) of wave 5 in progress. Within that A of(ii) over @8652. Now B in progress and it can end @8720. Then C will drag to 8630 after tat wave (iii) will start towards new high 9180
DeleteAbhi bro, so far my stop loss point 8740 not triggered from my Oct 18th comment. Any down side possible??? Exactly as I said on 18th 8737 came but buffer 3 points saved the stop loss
ReplyDeleteIf shorted at 8700 zone with my stop loss 8740, 200 points profit in 2weeks. today's low 8504. so far nify high is 8737
ReplyDeleteSir any update Abhishek sir n Manigandan sir
ReplyDeleteNeet: I will update my blog probably on Monday, the correction from top of 8968 till 8555 was a clear A B C correction post that the bounce till 8806,then fall till 8506 and again rise till 8737 came out to be the a b c of X wave giving it a formation of a double zig zag WXY, the first ABC from 8968 to 8555 was W then X wave abc 8806-8805-8736...then from 8736 the Y has again started to form another A B C from 8550-8678-8400 so far made yesterday. We will have to wait because the low of 8400 has touched the channel on downside, further bounce from here and closing above 8610 zone will tell whether the correction has ended or not.
DeleteAs of now the third wave from down side 7516-8968 was 1452....38.2% of this rise retracement is 554 points from top...coming to be at 8413 =(8968-554). Which it has taken out yesterday. The ideal 4th wave correction is usually around 38.2 % of wave 3 but it also has the capacity to go almost near the top of wave 1, which in this case is 7777. I do not hope it to be that nasty, but as per wave structure the windows is still open...only a closing above 8610 zone in coming week will confirm the uptrend again because it would break the channel it has been travelling since 8968. So hold on, as per my last post my view was to cover shorts in zone of 8650-8450....let us see and wait for the wave structure.
From my level 8690, nearly 300 points down with 8740 as stop loss. Nifty retraced 25.5% down should have been over I suppose. Nifty RSI is 32 now and historic data shows Nifty rsi above 30s in 980 trading days out of 1000days (4yrs data) future position longs no worries
ReplyDeleteThanx sir any sl u recommend as U.S. presidential elections R very near
ReplyDeleteNeet: Regarding SL i will let you know in my next post, anyways i have almost posted major part of my next post in reply to you.
DeleteHi Abhi bro plz advice. If low and high happens on same day as like on budget, waste of keeping stop loss right? Kindly advice
ReplyDeleteI think Any longs builded in the range 8400-8480 can have stop loss @8340 for targets 8666/8737/8888/8969. Plz advice
ReplyDelete