NIFTY on 16th March went up slightly above 7583 to make day's high at 7585 which i mentioned in my post on 16th morning.
The Wave coming from 6825 uptill now is WAVE C.3.4 which is explained well in my post 10th March: http://abhisheksaddi.blogspot.in/2016/03/nifty-wave-counts-for-wave-c-started.html
Now let us mark the wave counts in this wave C.3.4 coming from from 6825-7585 so far.
Wave C.3.4.A.1 / A.1: 6825-7094
Wave C.3.4.A.2 / A.2: 7094-6969
Wave C.3.4.A.3 / A.3: 6969-7527
Wave C.3.4.A.4 / A4: 7527-7424
Wave C.3.4.A.5 / A.5: 7424-7583
Total Wave C.3.4.A - 6825-7583 (758 points)
Wave C.3.4.B: 7583-7405 - 178 points (23.6% retracement of WaveA) i.e., 758 x (23.6%) = 178
Wave C.3.4.C - 7405 - either 7585 finished or in continuation which can max go to 7695 which is 38.2% retracement of WAVE A of 289 points so 7405+289 = 7694 or 7714-7730 zone (less chances)...and then final fall in form of WAVE C.3.5 for new 52 week low in early april
The Wave coming from 6825 uptill now is WAVE C.3.4 which is explained well in my post 10th March: http://abhisheksaddi.blogspot.in/2016/03/nifty-wave-counts-for-wave-c-started.html
Now let us mark the wave counts in this wave C.3.4 coming from from 6825-7585 so far.
Wave C.3.4.A.1 / A.1: 6825-7094
Wave C.3.4.A.2 / A.2: 7094-6969
Wave C.3.4.A.3 / A.3: 6969-7527
Wave C.3.4.A.4 / A4: 7527-7424
Wave C.3.4.A.5 / A.5: 7424-7583
Total Wave C.3.4.A - 6825-7583 (758 points)
Wave C.3.4.B: 7583-7405 - 178 points (23.6% retracement of WaveA) i.e., 758 x (23.6%) = 178
Wave C.3.4.C - 7405 - either 7585 finished or in continuation which can max go to 7695 which is 38.2% retracement of WAVE A of 289 points so 7405+289 = 7694 or 7714-7730 zone (less chances)...and then final fall in form of WAVE C.3.5 for new 52 week low in early april
BANKNIFTY as mentioned yesterday in my post....this current uptick from 13407 would max out in 15750-15800 zone as this is WAVE C.4 for BANKNIFTY....it would bottom out before NIFTY as it started its downtrend 2 months before NIFTY in January 2015 as compared to NIFTY's downtrend started in March 2015 and hence being WAVE C.4 it should not overlap WAVE C.1 zone which is this said zone of 15750-15800.
Also the when i alarmed at about 2:33 PM on MMB board yesterday - "I think we are ready for a total collapse both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY........we have seen zero movement in both indice as compared to the activity being done in USDINR.....reversal level for USDINRFUT above 66.50...for NIFTY below 7625 and for BANKNIFTY below 15758....." by this i saw a total reversal in intraday...which happened rapidly in last 40 minutes of trading and this kind of reversal is a sign of big downtrend.
Let us wait today to get the final confirmation whether we make again a slight higher high than 7583 or continue our journey for the free fall in NIFTY.....BANKNIFTY looks like it has already reversed and should be under immense pressure from now.
Happy Trading !
Thats great abhishek sir. Simply awesome.. Great jobs are always rewarded..
ReplyDeleteHi so advisable to hold shorts ???
ReplyDeleteGood morning Abhishek,
ReplyDeletePlease share (if possible) a breach/close of what level on the downside shall confirm the end of C.3.4
Abhishek Todays move is almost at reversal point. Please let know further updates after your study on the pattern.
ReplyDeleteSir.. I just gone through your blog..it's amazing... !!
ReplyDeleteAs u said.. If we are going to test or make new 52week by April..
I want to your view on gail..!!
I'm holding its put (PE stk prize of 320) ..bt now it's trading @ 360+...
Could pls help me with your view on it..
Sir... Also I want to learn wave theory (Elliot waves) could you refer me any site..book or any simple way to understand..
ReplyDeleteIm trying it since a week.. Bt nothing fruitful... :(
Sir.. I just gone through your blog..it's amazing... !!
ReplyDeleteAs u said.. If we are going to test or make new 52week by April..
I want to your view on gail..!!
I'm holding its put (PE stk prize of 320) ..bt now it's trading @ 360+...
Could pls help me with your view on it..
Abhishek bro I have been holding shorts in futures since 7475 on ur 52week low expectation bcoz believe in ur analysis bcoz I have seen it proven(Maybe just twice,but it is enough to ensure that you have the skills)..
ReplyDeleteI have seen you replying to queries of ur every single follower unlike others on mmb who hides after proven wrong.
One suggestion I would like to give you is stop giving specific time frames to avoid justifying ur analysis eveeyrday..it's market after all..
It will test patience, important is to stay on the right trend.
Cheers !!
Till now sir ur analysis is just awesome. We closed slightly higher than 7583.now should we wait for 7730 or take fresh position on Monday opening. Waiting eagerly ur response sir.
ReplyDeleteNeeraj: just a cautionary message...if taking fresh positions then please select april options...i see max 7695 as upside.....monday should be the decider....
DeleteThanks sir.
DeleteThanks sir.
DeleteAbhishek bro..i m short on march 7400 call which i shorted on thursday at the market close..ur views on the same
ReplyDeleteSir there has been news of interest rate cuts on pf and many other schemes...analysts are saying this is big positive news for nifty and it will go 100-150 points up on Monday...i have 7300 puts..now on this news if goes to 7700-7750 then dont u think 7300pe is in danger for this expiry as 400-450 from away...
ReplyDeleteTushar: just tell me one thing,how can you measure the impact of any news and come up with a number in mind. Don't take my comment negatively....PF interest rate cut is no way linked to market in any manner....also....we should not break 7795-7714 zone come what may....as mentioned...monday second half and tuesday first half would be the decider for an ultimate reversal.
DeleteAbhishek bro..i m short on march 7400 call which i shorted on thursday at the market close..ur views on the same
ReplyDeleteAnuj: I personally don't ever short calls or puts....so i would not be of any help to you.Apologies on this front, but as per my view the markets are set for for 7200 and below expiry.
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ReplyDeleteHi sir..appreciated ur all calls..but I had a question sir..from budget day fii's are buying huge quantity and rate cut expectation are also there..so how can we expect 7200 by march expiry? Waiting for ur reply sir..thanks
ReplyDeleteSamir Soni: I don't consider any news or expectations in my analysis....my last level is 7695-7714 zone...for ultimate reversal.I expect 7200-7090 zone expiry minimum for the month of March.
DeleteAbhishek, you mean to say 7% correction in 4 days ??? ignoring monday and tuesday
ReplyDeleteMadhavi: Remember how market has always corrected...Corrections are always emotional waves.....downtrend lasts much lesser than uptrend but it takes out more percentage on downside as compared to the gain of percentage on upside. Always remember this.
Delete