NATURAL GAS MID TO LONG TERM OUTLOOK CONTINUED-12th February 2018

Good Morning !

This is yet again a continuation of the post written on 4th April 2017 - NATURAL GAS MID TO LONG TERM OUTLOOK CONTINUED-4th April 2017

Excerpt from the above mentioned post -

"The downtrend started from 3.994 is in the form of wave C and hence have updated the chart accordingly. This again has the same target of $1.3 - $1.0 in a time span of 3 to 6 months.

The top made today in form of wave C.3.4 of $3.278 though has passed the low made by C.3.1 at $3.145 marginaly but in futures this rule of non-overlapping is sometimes taken out. Expecting a reversal any day from here for lower levels again.

Hold on to this trade by revising the Stop loss of $3.513."

Natural Gas was range bound from January 2015 till January 2018 in the zone of  $3.8 to $1.6 zone. The downtrend mentioned in the previous post from $3.994 which as per assumption was C for a long downtrend towards targets of $1.6 to $1.0 zone turned out to be a complex sideways correction by oscillating between $3.9 to $2.5 and hence is now giving a clearer view to the current trend. The long term targets are there for NG in zone of $1.6 to $1.0, but adding on to that, NG should now test zone of $4.0-$4.5-$5.0 on upside and then fall from there  for the bigger dowside targets.

The SL was revised to $3.513 for the continued sell call in the previous post on 4th April which did not trigger so far and only got there for a tick trade on 29th January 2018 and from there within a span of two calendar weeks, NG is again dropped to the support zone of $2.5.

Attaching the chart with updated wave counts with the corrective waves highlighted in ellipse shape and from here first NG should touch the zone of $4.0-$4.5-$5.0 on upside and then fall from there  for the bigger dowside targets.

BUY NG at $2.2550 with a Mini SL of $2.50 with target zone of $4.0-$4.5-$5.0 on upside in a time frame of 6 to 9 months. 

Once this zone of $4 to $5 is achieved on upside, post that NG should continue its downtrend journey which the wave counts have been waving do in the form of next bigger leg fall.

Happy Trading !

CRUDEOIL SELL CALL CONTINUED

Morning !

CRUDEOIL today made a high of $61.60, last time when it was at this price was on 24th June 2015 with a high of $61.56.

Referring to my previous call given on 25th May 2017

"SELL CRUDEOIL  IN ZONE OF $50-$51, WITH POSITIONAL TARGETS OF  $45 - $40 - $35 - $30 - $25 AND FINALLY $10, THIS IS A POSITIONAL CALL WITH A TIME FRAME OF 12-18 MONTHS (Giving a Range) AND A STRICT STOP LOSS OF $53.75 ON CLOSING BASIS.

GIVING STRICT SL because if gets hit, then it has the capacity to go upto $59-$61 on upside."

The lowest it went was till $42.05 on 21st June 2017 only hitting the initial range of the targets given.

It then reversed and has been on an uptrend since that day.

I also mentioned that i am giving a strict STOP LOSS of $53.75 on closing basis, because if it gets hit then it has the capacity to go upto $59-$61.

Today's high so far is $61.60.

The reason of the stop loss given at $53.75 was basis on the assumption that the current uptrend since $26.04 made on 11th February 2016  till $55.23 made on 3rd January 2017 was a simple ABC correction. But post the fall till $42.07 made on 21st June 2017 and the reversal from there showed it to be a complex correction of a double zig zag i.e., ABC Xabc ABC also know as W X Y correction.

Of this complex correction the second ABC seems to finish on the upside in the zone of $61.60 to $62.57.

Again an opportunity is approaching to sell CRUDEOIL in the range of $61.6 to $62.57 with a STRICT STOP LOSS of $65. 

NOTE: There is a rare possibility of the price to go upto $74.95 hence again the STOP loss of $2.5 on upside of $65.

THE POSITIONAL TARGETS REMAIN SAME FROM LAST CALL OF  $45 - $40 - $35 - $30 - $25 AND FINALLY $10, THIS IS A POSITIONAL CALL WITH A TIME FRAME OF 18-24 MONTHS (Giving a Range)

Happy Trading !

NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY UPDATE ON 16th OCTOBER 2017

Morning !

It has been long i wrote something. This upward movement on both major indices has been constantly going on. 

Referring to my last post on 3rd May 2017, i mentioned and gave couple of sell calls with manageable SL for both NIFTY and BANKNIFTY.

The fall witnessed in NIFTY in a fashion of 10137 - 9685 -10178 - 9687 has been a sideways wave 4 movement and since 9687 it has again shifted gears for moving in upwards direction and creating all time highs.

I am updating my wave counts for NIFTY since 6825. 

WAVE 1: 6825 - 8968

WAVE 2: 8968 - 7893 (Sharp Wave 2 from 7th September 2016 to 26th December 2016)

WAVE 3: 7893 - 10137

WAVE 4: 10137 - 9687 (Sideways Irregular Flat Wave 4 from 2nd August 2017 to 28th September 2017)

WAVE 5: 9687 - Potential (10825 - 11325 - 11825) Time frame 3 to 4 months

The above wave counts 1 to 5 are of the Fifth Wave, of which Wave 1 started from 2252 on 27th October 2008

The bigger wave counts goes like this:

WAVE I:   2252 - 6338

WAVE II:  6338 - 4531

WAVE III: 4531 - 9119

WAVE IV: 9119 - 6825

WAVE V: 6825 - Ongoing (expected to be completed in range of 10825 to 11825)

This ongoing WAVE 5 is highly likely going for 11325 to 11825 zone to complete 2 degrees of trend one starting from 6825 and another starting from 2252. This uptrend would make traders feel a euphoria which has been experienced never before. By numbers this will be a 5000 points rally approximately within a span of 2 years from 6825 to 11825 (Started February 2016 ending approximately in First Quarter 2018).

The wave counts for BANKNIFTY since  are as follows: (In sync with NIFTY)

WAVE 1: 13407 - 20575

WAVE 2: 20575 - 17606 (Sharp Wave 2 from 7th September 2016 to 26th December 2016)
WAVE 3: 17606 - 25198

WAVE 4: 25198 - 23611 (Sideways Flat Wave 4 from 2nd August 2017 to 28th September 2017)

WAVE 5: 23611 - 30500 to 31000 (Approximately again in the same time frame of Quarter 1 of 2018)

So from here there is a decent enough buying opportunity both in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY. For NIFTY in form of NIFTYBEES if someone wants to buy delivery of this ETF and in case of BANKNIFTY futures with the stop loss that one can bear.

The above views remain intact till the time we do not break 9685 on NIFTY and 23611 for BANKNIFTY. So, from here approx 1000-1500 points rally in NIFTY and approx 5000 - 6000 points rally in BANKNIFTY.

Happy Trading !

CRUDEOIL......A FALL THAT WILL COMPLETE THE ONGOING TREND SINCE 2008

Morning !

Crudeoil today has given first signal/indication of the BIG FALL it should continue from today's high made of $51.99 almost an hour back i.e., 1:00 PM Indian Standard Time.

Selling CRUDEOIL here is a very lucrative trade in terms of the Risk Reward Ratio.

SELL CRUDEOIL  IN ZONE OF $50-$51, WITH POSITIONAL TARGETS OF  $45 - $40 - $35 - $30 - $25 AND FINALLY $10, THIS IS A POSITIONAL CALL WITH A TIME FRAME OF 12-18 MONTHS (Giving a Range) AND A STRICT STOP LOSS OF $53.75 ON CLOSING BASIS.

GIVING STRICT SL because if gets hit, then it has the capacity to go upto $59-$61 on upside.

Happy Trading !

INDICES, STOCKS AND COMMODITIES UPDATE on 3rd May 2017

Morning !

The last update on NIFTY given by me was on 14th March 2017. I would like to re-iterate that my posts are usually when the pattern starts showing some signs of reversals, i do not write daily.

Coming back to the last post: Post on 14th March 2017

Below is the excerpt from the post.

"Since the Wave 1 top 7777 was not taken out by Wave 4 on downside i.e., 8968-7893 and it again went up above Wave 3 high of 8968 by making 8992, the case again opens for a new high above 9119 which SGX Nifty has already shown up in Global Indices segment by ensuring Approximately 220 + points so a rough calculation of spot price as on Friday i.e., 8934 + 220 takes it upto 9154 taking out 9119 and making all time new high, but this potential gap up should fizzle out soon in a week or two weeks time frame again in the zone of 9150-9250-9350 and finish this rally which started from 6825 and subsequently a bigger wave which started from 2252 way back on 27th October 2008."

The Minimum requirement for NIFTY at 9350 is fulfilled and it is giving very loud signals for a correction (Intermediate or Mid-long term...will have to wait to know that).

Selling NIFTY in the zone of 9375-9425 with a STRICT SL of 9450 ON CLOSING BASIS 

(Why a STRICT SL, only because it is a pattern we are trying to identify and trade on it, predicting certain numbers when few criteria are met gives out the probability of a plausible reversal be it on upside or downside - in this case a downside, with a STOP LOSS if hits then saves you a lot of time/money/energy to sit out and wait patiently for the next trade based on revised levels, as we have waited almost a month and a half for entering into one)

The Volatility Index VIX for NIFTY has it closed at an all time low (since its inception from September 2009) of 10.86 on 28th March 2017, giving signals of an inevitable reversal in the coming days for NIFTY (Magnitude of the fall is yet to be ascertained)

BANKNIFTY again made a new high of 22492.15 on 2nd May 2017. It is also at a cusp of a reversal/correction (time span need to wait)

Selling BANKNIFTY in the zone of 22300-22500 with a STRICT SL of 22750 (Range for Banknifty is on the higher side because of the volatile nature it has)

Nifty IT and Nifty PHARMA indices along with stocks within them like INFY, TECHM, TCS in the IT pack and DRREDDY, AUROPHARMA, SUNPHARMA, LUPIN have corrected in a range of 10-20% over the period of last One and a half month.

Both Nifty IT and Nifty PHARMA are about to reverse from zones of 9800-9900 (IT) and 9600-9700 (PHARMA) respectively in the coming weeks.

As far as individual stocks are concerned, specifically MARUTI, i mentioned in my last post :      Post on 14th March 2017

Excerpt from my post:

"Looks like the 5800 made on 8th March is the beginning of the last rise for targets of 6233 + levels like 6250-6350-6450 max uptill 6500. Not giving any trade call on this one, let it finish the upside above 6233 only then will give the potential level to sell with a mini SL for the same downside target of 4790-3200 range of the positional target call."

I had an assumption of 6500 on upside as a max level, today it made a high of 6730. MARUTI seems to now complete the overall wave count started from 1250 somewhere in September 2013. 

Selling here MARUTI in the zone of 6750-6800 with a STRICT SL of 6850 ON CLOSING BASIS for the same targets as mentioned last time in the rage of 4790-3200 as positional targets (Time frame needs to wait)

Referring to USDINR Buy Call given on 28th March 2017 in zone of 65.15 - 64.95 with a STRICT SL OF 64.75, it triggered the SL of 64.75 in April Expiry on 6th April 2017. Because the day SL was triggered the downfall became more severe and the near term low for USDINR Near Term Future (May) is registered as 64.2025 on 26th April.

A momentary Reversal in USDINR is also in place in coming trading sessions with today's close as 64.4525.

Anyone willing to buy here can take a strict SL of 64.1550 in May Expiry and trade for a target of 1 to 1.5 rupees i.e.,  zone of 65.45 to 65.95 on the USDINR in this expiry.

In Commodities GOLD and SILVER are at key levels of reversal.

Buying GOLD in $1250-$1260 zone with a STRICT SL OF $1240 on CLOSING BASIS and target of  $1300-$1375-$1400-$1425-$1450 in the coming next 6 months to 1 year.

Buying SILVER in $16.70-$16.80 zone with a STRICT SL of $16.60 on CLOSING BASIS and target of $18.65-$19.00-$21-$22 in the coming next 6 months to 1 year.

DOW JONES also reversed from 20379 on 19th April and almost touched the all time high of 21169 by falling short of 100 odd points at 21070 on 26th April. The minimum requirement for DOW JONES is a new high above 21169, post that it may lead to 21200-21500 zone for final reversal.

Happy Trading !

NATURAL GAS MID TO LONG TERM OUTLOOK CONTINUED-4th April 2017

Good Evening !

This in continuation to the post on 3rd January 2017 - January Post on Natural Gas.

I have updated the chart further and will provide the reason for the same in the following paragraph.

Fall from $6.493 on 24/02/2014 till $1.611 on 04/03/2016 was of $4.882 (6.493-1.611). This complete fall was wave A and 50% retracement of Wave A which measured 4.822 comes out to be 2.441. When this is added to 1.611 i.e., 1.611 + 2.441 comes upto be 4.052.

The retracement from 1.611 went upto $3.994 (Actual 3.994 - 1.611 = 2.383) on 28/12/2016 in the form of Wave B which is almost equal to 2.441 (97.6%) of this 50% retracement factor.

The downtrend started from 3.994 is in the form of wave C and hence have updated the chart accordingly. This again has the same target of $1.3 - $1.0 in a time span of 3 to 6 months.

The top made today in form of wave C.3.4 of $3.278 though has passed the low made by C.3.1 at $3.145 marginaly but in futures this rule of non-overlapping is sometimes taken out. Expecting a reversal any day from here for lower levels again.

Hold on to this trade by revising the Stop loss of $3.513.

Happy Trading !

USDINR.....A TIME TO CATCH IT AT A POTENTIAL BOTTOM

Morning !

This is the first post i am writing for USDINR. It is at a very critical juncture of reversal. Recommending a buying trade for USDINR Future April Expiry in the zone of 65.15-64.95 with a strict SL of 64.75 and a positional target of 6 to 9 months for a price of 70.

This is a trade that needs to be rolled over if taken....with a risk reward ratio of almost 1:20.
Where 0.25 is Risk on downside as SL and 5 points is upside as target.

Remember adhere to strict SL as it is only given basis due anaylysis because if that SL is taken out then it can create a sudden panic for the buyers.

Will update on NIFTY and BANKNIFTY too over this weekend. As we have noticed that NIFTY has entered that zone of 9150-9250-9350 and BANKNIFTY has again made a new high on upside today with 21376.15. This upside is about to get over soon as mentioned in my previous post on 13th March.

Dow Jones too is on verge of reversing for further upside above 21119 for 21500-21700 zone as the last upside.

Stay tuned and gear up for the ride of a lifetime.

Happy Trading !