Morning !
The last update on NIFTY given by me was on 14th March 2017. I would like to re-iterate that my posts are usually when the pattern starts showing some signs of reversals, i do not write daily.
Coming back to the last post:
Post on 14th March 2017
Below is the excerpt from the post.
"Since the Wave 1 top 7777 was not taken out by Wave 4 on downside i.e., 8968-7893 and it again went up above Wave 3 high of 8968 by making 8992, the case again opens for a new high above 9119 which SGX Nifty has already shown up in Global Indices segment by ensuring Approximately 220 + points so a rough calculation of spot price as on Friday i.e., 8934 + 220 takes it upto 9154 taking out 9119 and making all time new high, but this potential gap up should fizzle out soon in a week or two weeks time frame again in the zone of 9150-9250-9350 and finish this rally which started from 6825 and subsequently a bigger wave which started from 2252 way back on 27th October 2008."
The Minimum requirement for NIFTY at 9350 is fulfilled and it is giving very loud signals for a correction (Intermediate or Mid-long term...will have to wait to know that).
Selling NIFTY in the zone of 9375-9425 with a STRICT SL of 9450 ON CLOSING BASIS
(Why a STRICT SL, only because it is a pattern we are trying to identify and trade on it, predicting certain numbers when few criteria are met gives out the probability of a plausible reversal be it on upside or downside - in this case a downside, with a STOP LOSS if hits then saves you a lot of time/money/energy to sit out and wait patiently for the next trade based on revised levels, as we have waited almost a month and a half for entering into one)
The Volatility Index VIX for NIFTY has it closed at an all time low (since its inception from September 2009) of 10.86 on 28th March 2017, giving signals of an inevitable reversal in the coming days for NIFTY (Magnitude of the fall is yet to be ascertained)
BANKNIFTY again made a new high of 22492.15 on 2nd May 2017. It is also at a cusp of a reversal/correction (time span need to wait)
Selling BANKNIFTY in the zone of 22300-22500 with a STRICT SL of 22750 (Range for Banknifty is on the higher side because of the volatile nature it has)
Nifty IT and Nifty PHARMA indices along with stocks within them like INFY, TECHM, TCS in the IT pack and DRREDDY, AUROPHARMA, SUNPHARMA, LUPIN have corrected in a range of 10-20% over the period of last One and a half month.
Both Nifty IT and Nifty PHARMA are about to reverse from zones of 9800-9900 (IT) and 9600-9700 (PHARMA) respectively in the coming weeks.
As far as individual stocks are concerned, specifically MARUTI, i mentioned in my last post :
Post on 14th March 2017
Excerpt from my post:
"
Looks like the 5800 made on 8th March is the beginning of the last rise for targets of 6233 + levels like 6250-6350-6450 max uptill 6500. Not giving any trade call on this one, let it finish the upside above 6233 only then will give the potential level to sell with a mini SL for the same downside target of 4790-3200 range of the positional target call."
I had an assumption of 6500 on upside as a max level, today it made a high of 6730. MARUTI seems to now complete the overall wave count started from 1250 somewhere in September 2013.
Selling here MARUTI in the zone of 6750-6800 with a STRICT SL of 6850 ON CLOSING BASIS for the same targets as mentioned last time in the rage of 4790-3200 as positional targets (Time frame needs to wait)
Referring to USDINR Buy Call given on 28th March 2017 in zone of 65.15 - 64.95 with a STRICT SL OF 64.75, it triggered the SL of 64.75 in April Expiry on 6th April 2017. Because the day SL was triggered the downfall became more severe and the near term low for USDINR Near Term Future (May) is registered as 64.2025 on 26th April.
A momentary Reversal in USDINR is also in place in coming trading sessions with today's close as 64.4525.
Anyone willing to buy here can take a strict SL of 64.1550 in May Expiry and trade for a target of 1 to 1.5 rupees i.e., zone of 65.45 to 65.95 on the USDINR in this expiry.
In Commodities GOLD and SILVER are at key levels of reversal.
Buying GOLD in $1250-$1260 zone with a STRICT SL OF $1240 on CLOSING BASIS and target of $1300-$1375-$1400-$1425-$1450 in the coming next 6 months to 1 year.
Buying SILVER in $16.70-$16.80 zone with a STRICT SL of $16.60 on CLOSING BASIS and target of $18.65-$19.00-$21-$22 in the coming next 6 months to 1 year.
DOW JONES also reversed from 20379 on 19th April and almost touched the all time high of 21169 by falling short of 100 odd points at 21070 on 26th April. The minimum requirement for DOW JONES is a new high above 21169, post that it may lead to 21200-21500 zone for final reversal.
Happy Trading !
