Tuesday, April 4, 2017

NATURAL GAS MID TO LONG TERM OUTLOOK CONTINUED-4th April 2017

Good Evening !

This in continuation to the post on 3rd January 2017 - January Post on Natural Gas.

I have updated the chart further and will provide the reason for the same in the following paragraph.


Fall from $6.493 on 24/02/2014 till $1.611 on 04/03/2016 was of $4.882 (6.493-1.611). This complete fall was wave A and 50% retracement of Wave A which measured 4.822 comes out to be 2.441. When this is added to 1.611 i.e., 1.611 + 2.441 comes upto be 4.052.

The retracement from 1.611 went upto $3.994 (Actual 3.994 - 1.611 = 2.383) on 28/12/2016 in the form of Wave B which is almost equal to 2.441 (97.6%) of this 50% retracement factor.

The downtrend started from 3.994 is in the form of wave C and hence have updated the chart accordingly. This again has the same target of $1.3 - $1.0 in a time span of 3 to 6 months.

The top made today in form of wave C.3.4 of $3.278 though has passed the low made by C.3.1 at $3.145 marginaly but in futures this rule of non-overlapping is sometimes taken out. Expecting a reversal any day from here for lower levels again.

Hold on to this trade by revising the Stop loss of $3.513.

Happy Trading !